NEW YORK, August 25, 2026, 17:25 EDT - West Texas Intermediate crude declined 3.1%, settling at $82.36 a barrel, as expectations of increased supply grew following the relaxation of U.S. sanctions on Iran.
Price and ETF figures as of August 25, 2026 close, EDT.
EIA estimates. Bypass capacity: about 4.7 million b/d through Saudi and UAE pipelines.
| Signal | Likely crude effect | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Limited sanctions enforcement | Bearish premium | No immediate barrel loss |
| Temporary shipping corridor | Bearish premium | Improves tanker access |
| Secondary sanctions on buyers | Bullish risk | Threatens export demand |
| Retaliation or traffic loss | Bullish risk | Constrains physical flows |
EIA July 2026 forecast. Brent's August 25 settlement is 8.0% above the agency's 2026 average forecast.
Producers: lower spot prices reduce near-term revenue leverage.
Consumers and transports: cheaper fuel can support margins.
Rates: lower energy inflation can ease yield pressure.
Risk: physical disruption can reverse the entire move quickly.
| TSX company | Ticker | Move at 10:00 EDT |
|---|---|---|
| I-80 Gold | IAU | > +4% |
| Seabridge Gold | SEA | > +4% |
| NovaGold Resources | NG | > +4% |
Gold reached a three-month high. PenderFund CIO Greg Taylor said investors were moving back toward commodities.
| U.S. listing | Aug. 21 close | Consensus | Target gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agnico Eagle · AEM | $216.06 | Buy | −0.5% |
| Barrick · B | $47.60 | Buy | +9.9% |
| Kinross · KGC | $32.76 | Buy | +9.7% |
Why the TSX is holding: a 1.1% materials gain offsets part of the oil decline. Gold’s safe-haven bid is lifting smaller miners by more than 4%.
Why the rally is stalling: energy is heavier than materials, and new U.S. tariffs threaten exporters. The index needs either steadier oil or financial-sector support to break higher.
What changes the setup: tariff details, Iran sanctions, U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve guidance can reverse both gold and oil quickly.
Sources: Reuters TSX report, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Reuters tariffs report, AEM analysts, Barrick analysts, Kinross analysts.
Prices and sector moves are time-stamped and may change. Analyst targets use U.S.-listed shares and USD. This dashboard is informational, not investment advice.
