NEW YORK, July 4, 2026, 10:03 EDT
- Russia processed 3.95 million barrels of crude a day in June, down 25% from last year after Ukrainian strikes hit refineries. Gasoline production dropped 17% to 850,000 bpd.
- U.S. gasoline demand rose last week to 9.13 million bpd. Total gasoline stocks dropped to around 214 million barrels, with Gulf Coast inventories at their lowest level since October 2024.
- Public gas chains prove the pump still counts. Casey’s General Stores Inc NASDAQ:CASY booked a 46.9 cent per gallon fuel margin last quarter. Murphy USA Inc NYSE:MUSA put up a 35.0 cent per gallon total fuel contribution.
Investors tracking crude could miss what’s happening in fuels. Gasoline supply, retail margin, and store visits matter too. Russia is rationing after its refineries were hit. U.S. travel centers want people to use the pump as a way into buying food, coffee and other high-margin items. AAA reported regular gas at $3.81 a gallon Saturday. That’s down from $4.24 last month, but more than the $3.15 seen a year ago. Diesel at $4.80.
Crude isn’t leading the moves lately. Brent ended Friday at $71.94 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed at $68.78, both about flat for the week. RBOB gasoline’s front-month contract was last at $2.9531 a gallon. The EIA put the July 1 Gulf Coast 3:2:1 crack at $58.12 a barrel. Refiners like Valero Energy NYSE:VLO, Marathon Petroleum NYSE:MPC and Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX are now more exposed to product spreads, not just crude swings.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the U.S. price outlook is “anything but predictable.” Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS, said Americans “will go through with their plans” for summer travel even as gas prices sit near a four-year high. Reuters
| Signal | Last confirmed data | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. pump price | Regular $3.810; diesel $4.797 | Gas is still much higher than a year ago for drivers. |
| U.S. gasoline demand | 9.13 million bpd, up 356,000 bpd on the week | Demand stays solid as the holiday travel season picks up. |
| U.S. gasoline stocks | 213.97 million barrels; down about 8% year on year | Less inventory lets refiners keep better margins if demand holds up. |
| Gulf Coast stocks | 76.48 million barrels, lowest since October 2024 | The hub faces tighter supply ahead of hurricane season. |
| Russia gasoline output | 850,000 bpd, down 17% year on year | Lower output could mean more imports or limits on exports. |
Russia doesn’t fit the typical gasoline exporter model. The country actually ships out only a small amount of gasoline, according to AP. What matters for investors now is the size of the refinery repair bill, the risk Moscow could restrict other fuels, and how outages keep moving fuel away from where it’s needed. Since March, AP says Ukraine has hit Russian oil refineries and other energy targets over 50 times.
Gary Peach, oil markets analyst at Energy Intelligence, called the outages “extraordinary.” Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory, said the pressure is hitting at a “critical time for the Russian economy” while harvest season ramps up fuel demand. AP News
President Vladimir Putin is trying to stop the fuel shortage from becoming a deeper risk for his war policy. He described the issue as “not critical,” while admitting “there are still queues at gas stations.” Reuters said Russia had 1.7 million metric tons of gasoline in reserve, and officials were looking at a total diesel export ban. Reuters
Private roadside chains are making moves that show up in the public markets. Buc-ee’s now runs 56 stores in 13 states and has 15 more travel centers coming. The planned Buc-ee’s in Goodyear, Arizona, will cover 74,000 square feet and feature 120 gas pumps. “Goodyear will be the place to stop,” said Stan Beard, the chain’s real estate chief. Over in Tennessee, Dolly Parton opened Dolly’s Tennessean Travel Stop on June 24, joking she “couldn’t leave it to beavers.” Fox Business
| Operator or market | Latest margin or scale data | Why it matters to investors |
|---|---|---|
| Casey’s General Stores Inc NASDAQ:CASY | Q4 fuel margin came in at 46.9 cents a gallon; fuel gross profit rose 29.1% to $397.4 million | Better fuel margins and inside store sales can push up earnings even with slower gallon demand. |
| Murphy USA Inc NYSE:MUSA | Q1 total fuel contribution hit 35.0 cents a gallon, up from 25.4 cents | Getting more per gallon made up for weaker same-store fuel volume. |
| U.S. convenience-store sector | 122,620 stores with fuel; c-stores sell about 80% of all U.S. fuel | The sector has a grip on most retail fuel sales. |
| U.S. c-store profit mix | Fuel made up 65.0% of sales but just 38.8% of gross profit in 2025 | To hold profits, stores need inside sales like food, drinks and loyalty visits. |
| Buc-ee’s private model | 74,000-square-foot Goodyear site planned, with 120 pumps | Large builds pull more traffic, raising the bar for listed rivals. |
Casey’s CEO Darren Rebelez said the fuel team did a good job “balancing gallons sold with fuel margin.” For fiscal 2027, Casey’s is looking for inside same-store sales growth between 2% and 5%, with inside margin topping 42%. Same-store fuel gallons are seen anywhere from down 1% to up 1%. The company also sees EBITDA up 8% to 10%. At least 120 new stores are planned. Business Wire
Murphy tells a similar story in its lower-price store format. Same-store fuel volumes dropped 0.8% in the first quarter. But total retail gallons were up 2.1%. Merchandise contribution jumped 7.3%. Margin did the job, not just same-store volume.
This is why traders are waiting on the next U.S. gasoline stock report instead of watching crude, which ended flat. Gulf Coast refineries make up more than 55% of American refining, and gasoline inventories there are already the lowest since October 2024.
