LONDON, July 12, 2026, 18:26 BST
Oil futures set up for a choppy start Monday as U.S. and Iranian forces launched major missile and drone attacks over the weekend. Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz was shut, but Washington said ship traffic continued. U.S. Central Command said it hit 140 Iranian military positions Saturday after attacks on merchant ships.
Brent closed Friday at $76.01 a barrel, gaining 5.4% on the week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled at $71.41, up 4%. Fuel prices, though, took a bigger hit than Brent or WTI.
U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel futures moved up 11% Wednesday to $154 a barrel, trading about $80 over WTI. That margin over crude, the crack spread, is what refiners get from selling diesel and heating oil minus their crude input cost, before other expenses. Russian diesel and gasoil shipments dropped to 234,000 barrels a day for July 1-10, down from the usual 817,000 bpd last year. “Every barrel it now redirects to Latin America is a barrel not going to Europe,” said Qilin Tam at FGE NexantECA. Reuters
| Market signal | Last reading | Change | What investors are pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $76.01 on Friday | up 5.4% for the week | Risk around Hormuz disruption is up |
| WTI crude | $71.41 on Friday | up 4.0% this week | WTI trailing Brent |
| U.S. diesel | $154 on Wednesday | jumped 11% that day; at an $80 premium to WTI | Finished fuel is running tighter |
| S&P 500 Energy index | 839.58 on Friday | up 3.2% since July 2 | Energy stocks moved with crude, not with diesel’s jump |
Refiner stocks had a mixed day. Valero Energy NYSE:VLO closed Friday at $280.69, down 0.2%. Marathon Petroleum NYSE:MPC settled at $283.74, up 0.1%. Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX finished at $188.36, losing 0.8%. The different moves set up Monday as a test for how traders weigh fresh conflict—whether it’s another catalyst for refinery profits or the start of fresh inflation and demand trouble.
IEA data points to why crude prices and fuel prices aren’t moving the same way. Projections show an oil deficit of 860,000 bpd in 2026 and a swing to a 4.62 million bpd surplus in 2027 if Hormuz shipping picks up, a swing of 5.48 million bpd. For June, inventories rose 21 million barrels, but that was because “oil on water” shipments jumped by 117 million barrels, offsetting a 96-million-barrel draw from tanks on shore. Exports of refined products from the Gulf stayed below half their pre-war pace, while crude shipments are now near 75% recovered. So, the barrels exist, but not all of them are in the spot or the form the market needs. Reuters
The market is on edge for any hint of an easing, traders say. John Kilduff at Again Capital told reporters Friday oil was “ready, willing and able to jump on good news.” Sunday’s action went the other way. Reuters
OPEC drops its monthly report Monday, the first scheduled update since the IEA’s forecast of a shift from shortage to surplus. Later in the week, inflation, Chinese demand and U.S. inventory numbers are on deck behind geopolitical risk.
| Date | Release | Main oil-market test |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, July 13 | OPEC monthly oil-market report | Updated demand and production calls, new Gulf supply signals |
| Tuesday, July 14, 08:30 ET | U.S. June consumer-price index | Look at fuel inflation, rate bets, dollar reaction |
| Wednesday, July 15, 10:00 local time | China’s national economic report, including quarterly and June activity data | Focus on factory output, energy volumes, consumer numbers |
| Wednesday, July 15, 10:30 ET | U.S. weekly petroleum data | Distillate supplies — diesel, heating oil — refinery runs, crude shipments |
The bullish setup could fade fast. President Donald Trump said Sunday that Hormuz is open to commercial shipping. If tankers start moving again or talks resume, part of Brent’s war premium could go. High diesel and gasoline prices might hit demand, shrinking wide refinery margins into lower sales and cutting into last week’s crude rally.
Eni BIT:ENI CEO Claudio Descalzi said Saturday that tapping emergency stocks had curbed crude prices, but those reserves won’t last. He pushed for more energy security and a bigger mix of supply sources and routes. For refiners, order matters: crude flows can bounce back quicker than refining plants and fuels, so margins can stay elevated even if Brent slips.
Traders will act first Monday on missile and ship news. But the trend will depend on fuel stocks and how much crude refineries run. If U.S. distillates draw down again while crude inventories climb, the market keeps watching diesel around $80. A strong build in refined products swings the focus back to Brent.
