TS2 TECH • DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Stocks to Buy Today
Here are five U.S.-listed stocks to watch for Monday, August 3, based on Friday’s closing prices and the latest company results. The model favors strong earnings, solid cash conversion, positive forecasts, and attractive entry prices. Prices from Saturday reflect Friday’s closing figures.
Selective • use Monday resets, not opening gaps
7,489.72 • +0.70%
25,373.85 • +1.00%
52,485.03 • +0.53%
4.74%
5.27%
ISM manufacturing • 10:00 ET
Markets closed higher Friday, led by strong gains from Amazon, up 15.3%, and Microsoft, which rose 3.0%. In contrast, Apple dropped 7.4% and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.5%. Long-term yields also increased. The ranking now prioritizes new evidence where there is no significant price gap.
24% weight
Xylem
NYSE: XYL
95 / 100
Xylem takes the top spot as operating performance strengthened despite a flat share price. Orders surged 42%, adjusted EPS climbed 16%, and management raised profit guidance. Revenue gains remained modest, shifting focus to backlog conversion over headline order growth.
Shares closed Friday at $116.97, up 0.14%. Analysts rate the stock a Buy on average, with a consensus price target of $153.41. Targets range from $129 to $183, suggesting a potential upside of 31.2%.
Orders rose 42% to $3.1 billion, while revenue edged up 2% to $2.3 billion. Adjusted earnings per share increased 16% to $1.46, and the adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 150 basis points to 23.3%.
For 2026, the company expects adjusted EPS between $5.55 and $5.70, with revenue projected at around $9.2 billion. The adjusted EBITDA margin is forecast at 23.1% to 23.5%, and the midpoint implies a multiple of 20.8 times.
Initial buy between $114 and $119; add more at $108 to $112; avoid buying above $122
Key factors include backlog conversion, the timing of Water Solutions projects, securing data center contracts, and whether second-half cash conversion aligns with profit.
Organic revenue grew only 1%, so the order surge must convert cleanly.
22% weight
AerCap
NYSE: AER
93 / 100
AerCap offers the lowest forward earnings multiple on the list, alongside an 18% adjusted return on equity. The updated $16.80 EPS guidance does not factor in any additional asset sale gains for the second half. Share buybacks continue. Risks remain tied to aircraft values and airline credit quality.
Shares closed Friday at $150.90, down 1.27%. The stock holds a consensus Buy rating, with an average price target of $173.60 and estimates ranging from $150 to $190, suggesting a potential upside of 15.0%.
Revenue and other income rose 15% to $2.17 billion, with adjusted net income at $811 million. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $5.14, while operating cash flow reached $1.5 billion.
For 2026, the company forecasts adjusted EPS of around $16.80, representing 9.0 times guided earnings. Adjusted return on equity is projected at 18%. Book value per share stands at $119.21, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.27.
Initial tranche: $148–$153; consider adding at $142–$146; avoid buying above $157.
Factors include lease yields, airline credit quality, margins from aircraft sales, financing costs, and ongoing share buybacks at prices below the model’s intrinsic value estimate.
The formal guide also includes first-half gains on sale.
20% weight
Visa
NYSE: V
90 / 100
Visa delivered double-digit gains in payment volume, processed transactions, and cross-border activity, with growth spread evenly across regions and categories. The stock’s valuation remains elevated, making disciplined entry more important than another strong quarterly showing.
Shares closed Friday at $366.13, down 0.08%. Analysts rate the stock a Strong Buy with an average price target of $413.45, ranging from $330 to $450, implying a potential upside of 12.9%.
Net revenue reached $11.63 billion, up 14%. Adjusted EPS rose 11% to $3.32. Payments volume increased 10%, cross-border volume advanced 13%, and processed transactions climbed 10%.
Full-year adjusted revenue is expected to grow at the lower end of the low-teens range, with adjusted EPS also projected to increase at the low end of the mid-teens. Shares are trading at 27.7 times FY2026 consensus EPS and 24.4 times FY2027 estimates.
Buy the first tranche between $358 and $367, add to positions at $348 to $354, but avoid buying above $374.
Key factors include fourth-quarter payment volume, client incentives, growth in value-added services, and whether restructuring efforts boost productivity without delaying new launches.
18% weight
Chevron
NYSE: CVX
87 / 100
Chevron delivered a solid quarter, helping to counter the impact of weaker commodity prices. Adjusted earnings surpassed forecasts, production hit 4.0 million barrels a day, and cash returns remained robust. The stock has already rallied alongside oil, but a drop in crude prices could quickly change the outlook.
Shares closed Friday at $196.83, up 2.36%. Analysts rate the stock a Buy on average, with a consensus price target of $214.88. Targets range from $170 to $236, suggesting an implied upside of 9.2%.
Adjusted earnings came in at $12.0 billion, with adjusted EPS at $6.06. Global production reached 4.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while U.S. output hit a record 2.08 million boe per day.
Consensus expects 2026 EPS at $14.74, with shares trading at 13.4 times these pre-update earnings. The company has announced a full-year share buyback target between $10 billion and $20 billion, and estimates $1.5 billion in synergies from the Hess deal.
Initial purchase range: $192–$198. Add on dips between $184–$189. Avoid buying above $202.
Key factors include crude and refining margins, capturing synergies from Hess, third-quarter maintenance, and the speed of share buybacks within the annual range.
De-escalation or a faster supply response would cut earnings estimates.
16% weight
UPS
NYSE: UPS
84 / 100
UPS has shifted from cutting costs to achieving clear profit recovery. Revenue increased, guidance improved, and the dividend yield stands out as unusually high for its sector. However, second-half performance remains crucial, as domestic volume and fuel expenses could offset some margin gains.
Shares closed Friday at $104.22, down 1.00%. Analysts have a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $115.85, ranging from $76 to $135. This suggests an implied upside of 11.2%.
Revenue came in at $22.8 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 9.2%. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.76. U.S. revenue rose 6.0%, while international revenue climbed 12.5%.
Projected 2026 revenue stands at approximately $91.2 billion, with adjusted operating profit estimated at $8.65 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast at $7.22, representing 14.4 times the guided EPS. The annualized dividend yield is expected to be 6.3%.
Initiate position at $101–$105, add more at $96–$99, but avoid buying if the price exceeds $109.
Domestic package volumes, revenue per piece, execution of the $3 billion cost program, and developments following the reduction of the Amazon network.
Domestic margins and volumes must improve further to support the annual target.
| Ticker | Friday close | Forecast | Fwd P/E | Avg target | Upside | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XYL | $116.97 | 2026 guide midpoint $5.63 | 20.8× | $153.41 | +31.2% | $114–$119 |
| AER | $150.90 | 2026 guide $16.80 | 9.0× | $173.60 | +15.0% | $148–$153 |
| V | $366.13 | FY2026 consensus $13.20 | 27.7× | $413.45 | +12.9% | $358–$367 |
| CVX | $196.83 | 2026 pre-result $14.74 | 13.4× | $214.88 | +9.2% | $192–$198 |
| UPS | $104.22 | 2026 guide $7.22 | 14.4× | $115.85 | +11.2% | $101–$105 |
Prices reflect Friday’s closing levels. Chevron’s 2026 earnings estimate was issued before Friday’s results and should be considered provisional. Analyst targets represent forecasts, not guaranteed returns.
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
Earnings and forecast updates
Cash flow and balance sheet overview
Valuation compared to projections
Entry quality following the recent move
Short-term event risk
Use limit orders and build each position in three tranches.
Avoid placing a market order into an opening gap greater than 3%. Reevaluate your position after the ISM manufacturing and construction spending reports are released at 10:00 a.m. ET. Retain any stock that opens above its designated range at a weight below the model allocation.
NASDAQ: AMZN
DO NOT CHASE
Shares closed Friday at $271.58, up 15.25%. AWS sales rose 37%, but trailing free cash flow was negative $7.6 billion. Consider waiting for a pullback to $255 or lower.
NYSE: ETN
WAIT BELOW $400
Shares closed Friday at $415.20, up 7.35%. Sales climbed 21%, and the company raised its EPS guidance. However, the stock now trades at roughly 30.8 times the midpoint of the $13.50 EPS outlook.
NASDAQ: MSFT
DO NOT CHASE
Shares closed Friday at $464.72, up 3.01%. The stock surged nearly 19% over two sessions following a brighter cloud outlook. Consider waiting for a dip below $440 before buying.
6.3 / 10
The chosen stocks sidestepped the biggest market swings on Friday, but rising bond yields and commodity volatility continue to push up the hurdle rate. Chevron increases oil exposure, while UPS introduces more execution risk.
Friday’s gains in the index were driven mainly by Amazon and Microsoft, while small-cap stocks declined. The 30-year Treasury yield closed at about 5.27%, marking its highest point since 2007. Investors will watch Monday’s manufacturing data for potential impact on both yields and cyclical stocks.