NEW YORK, August 1, 2026, 18:06 ET
- Disney will announce its fiscal third-quarter earnings before markets open on Wednesday.
- An initial estimate shows a 24.6% overall profit increase from Entertainment and Experiences.
- Analysts’ average estimates point to revenue of $25.44 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.86.
The Walt Disney Company NYSE:DIS is set for a more demanding earnings challenge than its revenue forecast indicates. The company projects roughly $5.3 billion in segment operating income for the third quarter.
Sports earnings are forecast to drop roughly 14%, largely due to increased programming expenses. This means the parks and entertainment divisions are set to drive quarterly results.
Analysts on average forecast revenue of $25.44 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.86, reflecting sales growth of 7.6% and a 15.5% rise in EPS. This difference indicates the need for improved profit conversion.
U.S. cash markets did not open on Saturday. Disney finished Friday at $96.19, marking a 1.4% increase from the previous Friday. The S&P 500 rose by 1.0%.
| Security | July 31 close | July 24–31 move |
|---|---|---|
| Walt Disney NYSE:DIS | $96.19 | up 1.4% |
| Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX | $71.71 | up 2.3% |
| Comcast NASDAQ:CMCSA | $23.96 | gained 7.5% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery NASDAQ:WBD | $26.30 | rose 2.1% |
| S&P 500 | 7,489.72 | added 1.0% |
Equity returns have been measured using the closing prices on July 24 and July 31.
Disney outperformed the index, yet trailed each of its three chosen rivals. The stock is still down 15.5% for the year. Its trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 indicates ongoing caution.
The earnings bar shows a clear division between revenue and net income.
| Metric | Q3 FY2025 actual | Q3 FY2026 bar | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.650 billion | $25.440 billion, consensus | +7.6% |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.61 | $1.86, consensus | +15.5% |
| Total segment operating income | $4.575 billion | About $5.300 billion, company guide | +15.8% |
| Segment operating income/revenue | 19.3% | 20.8%, preliminary | Increase of 1.5 points |
The last line shows a calculated ratio, which does not represent Disney’s official segment-margin metric.
The resulting ratio indicates the extent of necessary operating leverage. Merely surpassing revenue expectations may not resolve the discussion.
The operating bridge indicates the location of the pressure.
| Operating-income component | Q3 FY2025 | Q3 FY2026 implied or required | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | $1.037 billion | $0.892 billion, preliminary | -14.0% |
| Entertainment and Experiences | $3.538 billion | $4.408 billion, preliminary | +24.6% |
| Total segments | $4.575 billion | About $5.300 billion | +15.8% |
Initial estimates rely on Disney’s roughly $5.3 billion outlook and an expected 14% downturn in Sports.
Sports is projected to see a reduction of around $145 million in operating income. Entertainment and Experiences needs to contribute approximately $870 million. This represents the main test for investors.
The second-quarter results illustrate the significant role parks play.
| Q2 FY2026 segment | Revenue | Operating income | Margin | Share of segment income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entertainment | $11.715 billion | $1.336 billion | 11.4% | 29.0% |
| Sports | $4.609 billion | $0.652 billion | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| Experiences | $9.487 billion | $2.615 billion | 27.6% | 56.8% |
Disney’s stated segment results serve as the basis for margins and share calculations.
Experiences accounted for 56.8% of segment profit in the second quarter. Domestic park attendance declined 1%, but per-capita spending increased 5%. Disney anticipates better attendance comparisons for the third quarter.
Streaming remains a key variable. SVOD operating income totaled $582 million for the second quarter, with a margin of 10.6%, marking Disney’s first quarterly margin in double digits.
In May, Chief Executive Josh D’Amaro outlined Disney’s approach, pledging to “improve the consumer experience, deepen engagement, and continue building a healthy and more durable growth business.” Wednesday’s results will put these promises to the test. Reuters
Disney is set to announce its results ahead of the market opening on Wednesday. The company’s webcast is scheduled to begin at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors are focusing on SVOD margins, theme park visitor numbers, sports-related expenses, and full-year outlook.
Key risks include rising costs for sports rights, declining attendance at international parks, and continued weakness in linear TV. Increased expenses for consumers may also limit travel demand. A downward revision in guidance would put the margin outlook under pressure.
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