NEW YORK, August 1, 2026, 17:01 EDT
- Constellation ended Friday at $262.75, falling 4.2% over the week. The S&P 500 rose roughly 1.0%.
- Initial estimates indicate its PJM capacity value for 2028/29 is about $2.24 billion, marking a 2.5% increase compared with the previous auction.
- Constellation Energy Corporation is scheduled to report second-quarter results on August 6. Early estimates show adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $2.24 to $2.35 per share.
Early estimates indicate that Constellation Energy Corporation NASDAQ:CEG will have a higher gross PJM capacity value in 2028/29, with the increase at roughly 2.5%. This rise occurred even though the auction price was 2.5% lower.
Increased fossil and other capacity contributed to the rise. Cleared volume within that segment climbed 31%, generating an estimated $81 million in preliminary annual value.
The value of nuclear capacity is projected to decrease by around 1.4%. This figure is also included in federal production-tax-credit gross receipts, which lessens its additional earnings advantage.
U.S. cash markets were shut for the weekend. Constellation ended Friday at $262.75, down 0.3%. Over the week, shares declined 4.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.0%.
Merchant-power peers showed a mixed performance on Friday. Shares of Constellation and Vistra declined, while NRG and Talen posted modest gains.
| Company | Friday close | Daily move |
|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation NASDAQ:CEG | $262.75 | down 0.31% |
| Vistra Corp. NYSE:VST | $148.19 | down 0.29% |
| NRG Energy Inc. NYSE:NRG | $134.29 | up 0.27% |
| Talen Energy Corporation NASDAQ:TLN | $334.10 | up 0.58% |
PJM’s most recent capacity auction settled at the $325 per MW-day cap, under the $333.44 clearing price recorded in the previous auction. The market still cleared 6,831 MW under its reliability target.
Demand continues to be the main limit. PJM President and CEO David Mills stated that electricity demand “continues to grow faster than electricity supply.” The forecasted peak demand rose by about 2,000 MW since the last auction. PJM Inside Lines
According to Constellation’s filings, a larger amount of cleared capacity made up for the lower price. The company’s total rose by 925 MW.
| PJM planning year | Price per MW-day | Nuclear MW | Fossil and other MW | Total MW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027/28 | $333.44 | 15,525 | 2,425 | 17,950 |
| 2028/29 | $325.00 | 15,700 | 3,175 | 18,875 |
| Change | -2.5% | +1.1% | +30.9% | +5.2% |
Multiplying each auction price by the corresponding cleared capacity over 365 days yields the preliminary values below. These numbers represent gross capacity value rather than projected profit.
| Preliminary gross capacity value | 2027/28 | 2028/29 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | $1.89 billion | $1.86 billion | -1.4% |
| Fossil and other | $295 million | $377 million | +27.6% |
| Total | $2.18 billion | $2.24 billion | +2.5% |
The calculations do not take into account hedges, outages, settlements, or operating expenses. Constellation omitted assets listed as held for sale from its most recent auction update. Receipt of nuclear capacity payments may reduce production-tax-credit benefits and should not be counted in addition to base earnings.
Constellation will report results Thursday, August 6, with an earnings call set for 10:00 a.m. EDT, after the expected release.
Initial estimates show variation. They indicate year-on-year earnings have risen for another quarter.
| Earnings measure | Q2 2026 preliminary | Q2 2025 actual | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.24-$2.35 | $1.91 | Increase of 17% to 23% |
| Revenue | $7.47 billion | $6.10 billion | Approximately 22% higher |
| Full-year adjusted EPS | $11-$12 company guidance; $11.74 consensus | $9.39 in 2025 | Rise of 17% to 28% |
The company announced adjusted earnings per share of $2.74 for the first quarter. Its outlook for 2026 remains at $11 to $12. Chief Executive Joe Dominguez stated, “our focus is on execution.” SEC
Market participants will monitor Calpine integration, nuclear generation levels, and the operational availability of the gas fleet. Nuclear capacity factor for the first quarter stood at 92.3%, compared with 94.1% in the same period last year. The forced-outage factor for gas, oil and pumped-storage units was 4.5%.
Risks: PJM price caps and offsets from federal tax credits may restrict auction gains. Earnings could also be affected by plant outages, swing in power prices, and Calpine integration.
The auction offers a buffer of capacity ahead of results. Thursday’s report will indicate if that value is translating into stable cash flow.
