National regular gasoline · Aug. 20
$4.10 / gallon
+$0.97 · +31.0% year over year
$3.13year-ago price
$14.55extra per 15-gallon fill
$757estimated annual gap
U.S. Gasoline Waiver Challenges $22 Billion Valuation Edge for Refiners
The premature conclusion of U.S. summer-gasoline regulations puts about $22 billion in valuation premium at risk for three leading refiners. Shares of Valero Energy Corp., Marathon Petroleum Corp. and Phillips 66 remain above consensus analyst price targets. The increased supply flexibility may relieve prices at the pump, but could also trim gasoline scarcity margins.
Gasoline · U.S. policy shock
Two weeks of supply relief test refinery premiums
Higher-volatility E10 can enter early, but elevated crude and uneven state waivers decide how much reaches drivers.
August 21, 202607:21 EDT · 13:21 CEST
U.S. premarket active
U.S. premarket active
Policy mechanism
AUG 20EPA announces early seasonal transition.
SEP 1Higher-RVP E10 may enter sale nationwide.
14 DAYSSupply flexibility arrives before normal timing.
20 DAYSMaximum waiver in Texas, Arizona and California.
Direct channel: more usable gasoline supply. Investor channel: softer scarcity margins for refiners.
Valuation premium versus average analyst target
| Refiner | Aug. 20 close | Move | P/E | Target gap | Value premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valero | $341.51 | -1.37% | 14.17 | -6.10% | $6.0B |
| Marathon | $358.23 | -0.70% | 12.54 | -8.98% | $9.0B |
| Phillips 66 | $240.00 | -0.95% | 13.71 | -6.82% | $6.5B |
Analyst recommendations
VLO Buy
9
VLO Hold
6
MPC Buy
9
MPC Hold
6
PSX Buy
8
PSX Hold
6
Bullish ratings persist. Average targets still sit below all three closing prices.
What decides the trade
Gulf Coast cracksFirst read on whether blending flexibility compresses margins.
Northeast spreadNew York and New Jersey rules can limit regional relief.
Retail pass-throughWholesale declines may not reach pumps immediately.
Iran and crudeSupply disruption can overwhelm a gasoline-specification change.
Prices: August 20, 2026, 16:00 EDT closes; dashboard assembled August 21, 2026, 07:21 EDT. Pump data: Reuters citing AAA. Policy: Reuters and EPA. Stock data and analyst consensus: Google Finance. Market-value premiums are estimates.
Stock Market Today: Live Updates 19.08.2026
LIVEMarkets rolling coverageStarted: August 19, 2026, 3:42 AM EDTUpdated: August 20, 2026, 2:42 AM EDT Samsung Electronics reportedly plans more than $71 billion in shareholder returns August 20, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT. Samsung Electronics is preparing a shareholder-return programme worth more than 100 trillion won, or about $71.75 billion, according to Korean media cited by Reuters. The plan is expected to include a special dividend and would direct 50% of free cash flow to shareholders, with board approval targeted for the end of August. The scale follows SK Hynix’s 40 trillion won buyback and reflects the exceptional cash generation created
Valero Stock (NYSE:VLO) Ends Session at $350 After Diesel Crack Hits All-Time High Over $100
Valero Energy Corporation closed Tuesday just below an all-time high, after the U.S. diesel crack surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time. The surge is driving exceptionally strong short-term refining margins, but it also results in only a thin valuation buffer.
Refining margin monitor
Valero Energy NYSE: VLO
Stock data: August 18, 2026 regular close, 4:00:04 p.m. EDT
Diesel crack: August 17, 2026 intraday record
Diesel crack: August 17, 2026 intraday record
Closing price$350.05+0.83% on the day
U.S. diesel crack$102.20Record dollars per barrel
Average analyst target$320.678.4% below close
Distance from 52-week high0.27%$0.95 below $351.00
One-day market performance
Regular-session change on August 18, 2026
Analyst target range15 analysts · 9 buy · 6 hold · 0 sell
Low $255High $365
Q2 earnings leverage
Segment operating income, Q2 2026; bar scale tops at $4.44bn
Refining$4.44bn
Renewable diesel$717m
Ethanol$318m
Investor read-through: the record diesel crack is roughly 2.35 times Valero's Q2 Gulf Coast diesel benchmark. Near-term earnings leverage is powerful.
Pricing risk: the stock sits near its 52-week high while the average analyst target is below the market. Margin normalization could compress both earnings and valuation.
Sources: Google Finance, Valero Q2 2026 results, and Reuters reports dated August 17 and August 18, 2026. Percent comparisons are calculated from reported values.
Valero Shares Face Pressure as Diesel Crack Hits All-Time $93.84 in 98% Rally Test
Valero Energy Corporation faces an uncommon challenge this week. On August 10, the U.S. ultra-low-sulfur diesel crack hit an all-time high at $93.84 a barrel. This figure stands at 2.16 times the Gulf Coast diesel spread Valero reported for the second quarter.
Valero, Marathon Surge to All-Time Highs Despite Oil’s 2% Slide—Refiners Diverge from Sector
NEW YORK, August 13, 2026, 17:25 EDT — U.S. equity markets remained closed, but Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum finished at record levels despite a more than 2% drop in crude prices, marking a clear division in energy stocks. Valero rose 3.85% to $342.92, while Marathon advanced 2.33% to $356.37.
Oil surpasses $100 after Red Sea attack raises threat to Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz alternative
Brent crude rose past $100 on Thursday following an incident in which a Saudi tanker was hit in the Red Sea. The event heightened concerns over supply disruptions spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil Surpasses $100 Following Red Sea Tanker Strike; Energy Shares Trail Behind Rally in Crude
Brent crude surpassed $100 on Thursday, but U.S. energy stocks posted more modest gains. The divergence indicates investors view the situation as a sharp transport disruption rather than a fundamental change in earnings outlook.
U.S. refiners outperform oil majors with record diesel margins amid Hormuz disruptions
A basket tracking three U.S. refiners in equal weights increased 10.1% last week, outperforming the S&P 500 by 11.7 percentage points. U.S. cash trading was paused for the weekend following declines on Friday. Shares of Valero Energy advanced 10.3%, Marathon Petroleum climbed 10.2%, and Phillips 66 was up 9.8%.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) Shares Reach All-time High as Refining Margins Move Attention to Q3
U.S. markets did not open on Saturday, so Friday’s record of $309.65 remained. Valero rose 10.3% compared to its close on July 10.
US Diesel Exceeds $5 as Iran Tensions Boost Refiner Margins, Shipping Expenses
U.S. diesel climbed to $5.088 a gallon on Saturday. The price premium over regular gasoline expanded to $1.096, almost double the difference from a year ago.
Exxon, Chevron set for $26B quarter; refiners hold up in Iran war trade
Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy jumped about 3.8% each in late-morning trading on Monday. Exxon Mobil added 3.4%. Chevron was up 2.2%. Brent crude was up more than 4%, above $79 a barrel, after President Donald Trump said the U.S. is bringing back its naval blockade of Iran. The split in refiners and oil majors points to stronger fuel margins, not just the crude rally, as the key driver for earnings.
Energy Stocks Week Ahead: Can U.S. Refiners Keep Beating the Oil Sector?
Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks around the Strait of Hormuz will dominate Monday’s open, but U.S. refiners look positioned to keep outperforming the broader energy sector. Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 delivered a simple average gain of 6.0% between the July 2 and July 10 closes, compared with 3.5% for the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund. Yes, refiners can retain that lead—but only while gasoline and diesel prices continue to outrun their crude-oil costs.
Oil Week: Diesel Premium Nears $80, Brent Sees Fresh Monday Gap
Oil futures set up for a choppy start Monday as U.S. and Iranian forces launched major missile and drone attacks over the weekend. Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz was shut, but Washington said ship traffic continued. U.S. Central Command said it hit 140 Iranian military positions Saturday after attacks on merchant ships.
U.S. Refiners Outrun Oil as Margins Touch Records This Week
Large U.S. refiners beat both crude and the wider energy sector this week. Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and Valero Energy each rose, averaging a 6.0% gain with each stock weighted equally. That compares to a 3.2% rise for the S&P 500 Energy index and about 4% for U.S. crude.
Gasoline crunch brings big gas stations, fuel margins into investor view
Investors tracking crude could miss what’s happening in fuels. Gasoline supply, retail margin, and store visits matter too. Russia is rationing after its refineries were hit. U.S. travel centers want people to use the pump as a way into buying food, coffee and other high-margin items. AAA reported regular gas at $3.81 a gallon Saturday. That’s down from $4.24 last month, but more than the $3.15 seen a year ago. Diesel at $4.80.
Refiners top oil majors among energy stocks in June 2026 as ETF weight shifts
Energy stocks in the U.S. finished June mixed, a split that wasn’t obvious on the sector tape. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund dropped along with oil majors and services, while two big refiners gained. The June 29 session was a regular U.S. trading day; according to the NYSE’s 2026 calendar, Juneteenth is observed June 19, with the next stock-market closure for Independence Day on July 3.
Energy stocks this week: U.S. sector ETF holds flat as oil falls
Energy stocks in the U.S. head into a short week trading with a more defined separation than crude futures show. Brent crude has pulled back, shedding most of its war risk pricing. But the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund isn’t tracking oil’s move down point for point.
Exxon Mobil Drops With Oil After U.S.-Iran Deal
Exxon Mobil shares slid Monday as oil prices sold off after the U.S. and Iran said they would end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Exxon last traded at $141.10, down about 4%. Shares hit a session low of $137.78. Brent crude dropped 5.02% to $82.95, while WTI lost 5.42% to $80.28 as of 10:54 a.m. EDT, according to Reuters.
Gas Prices Stay High After Iran Ceasefire as Mono County Drivers Face the Nation’s Steepest Prices
AAA reports the national average is still holding above $4 a gallon for the first time since August 2022. California drivers are seeing regular gas nearly 78 cents pricier than a month back, and diesel there just hit a record—$7.746 a gallon.
SCHD Draws Fresh Attention After New Dividend and 2026 Reconstitution
The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF is back in focus, with a new quarterly payout and a March reshuffling of its holdings putting dividend strategies back in the spotlight during uncertain times. SCHD hovered near $30.57 late Monday morning in New York.
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