WARSAW, July 23, 2026, 17:10 CEST
- Brent crude climbed 6.7% to $100.37, while WTI advanced 5.5% to settle at $91.91.
- Leading U.S. producers gained between 1.5% and 2.6%, while refiners were up 0.7% to 1.1%.
- Oil futures along with U.S. cash equities were actively trading at the time of publication.
Brent crude surpassed $100 on Thursday, but U.S. energy stocks posted more modest gains. The divergence indicates investors view the situation as a sharp transport disruption rather than a fundamental change in earnings outlook.
Brent crude was up 6.7% at $100.37 at 1401 GMT, while WTI increased 5.5% to $91.91, marking a fifth consecutive session of gains.
U.S. equities saw a muted reaction during busy cash trading hours. By 1453 GMT, shares of Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM and Chevron NYSE:CVX were both up roughly 2%. The S&P 500 traded around 1% lower.
| Market | Latest verified check | Session move |
|---|---|---|
| Brent futures, 1401 GMT | $100.37 a barrel | up 6.7% |
| WTI futures, 1401 GMT | $91.91 a barrel | up 5.5% |
| Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM | $157.57 | up 2.0% |
| Chevron NYSE:CVX | $196.80 | up 2.0% |
| Diamondback Energy NASDAQ:FANG; Devon Energy NYSE:DVN; ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP; Occidental Petroleum NYSE:OXY | — | gained between 1.5% and 2.6% |
| Valero Energy NYSE:VLO; Marathon Petroleum NYSE:MPC; Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX | — | rose 0.7% to 1.1% |
The gap stands as the most evident signal for investors. Brent rose roughly 3.4 times more than the leading producers. Refiners trailed even more, with European diesel margins close to $65 per barrel.
The futures curve reflected increased short-term strain. On Wednesday, the three-month Brent spread expanded to $9.26 in backwardation, marking its highest level since May 22. This represented nearly 10% of the prompt settlement.
Houthis said they targeted two Saudi oil tankers. Saudi officials confirmed a fire onboard the Encelia. According to UKMTO, a tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile southwest of Al Shuqaiq. No independent confirmation was available regarding the second reported attack.
Shipping routes shifted prior to Thursday’s updates. On Wednesday, five tankers changed direction. Two indicated a route toward the Suez Canal instead of departing through the southern Red Sea.
The Red Sea shipping lane is now transporting significantly more energy than normal. According to Kpler data, Bab el-Mandeb saw 7.4 million barrels per day pass through in June, accounting for 7% of world supply and marking a 76% increase from a year earlier.
Over 70% of Saudi Arabia’s typical crude shipments have been redirected to Yanbu. John Evans of PVM Energy stated that it could take over 50 days for crude to reach China from Yanbu, compared to a little more than 20 days on the regular route.
Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, noted markets had factored in “a worrying probability of supply interruptions in a second chokepoint.” Reuters
Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS maintained its Brent forecast for the fourth quarter at $80. The bank cautioned that continued disruption to both major shipping routes could drive prices past $120. The company’s base forecast is roughly 20% under Thursday’s spot price.
Vessel movement is emerging as the next focus for investors. Prolonged detours would constrain tanker availability and push back shipments to Asia. A further confirmed attack would probably increase the prompt premium.
Risks are balanced on both sides. Uninterrupted transit through Bab el-Mandeb could rapidly erase the premium. Confirmed shutdowns may push up crude prices, shipping rates, and diesel costs simultaneously.
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