National regular gasoline · Aug. 20
$4.10 / gallon
+$0.97 · +31.0% year over year
$3.13year-ago price
$14.55extra per 15-gallon fill
$757estimated annual gap
U.S. Gasoline Waiver Challenges $22 Billion Valuation Edge for Refiners
The premature conclusion of U.S. summer-gasoline regulations puts about $22 billion in valuation premium at risk for three leading refiners. Shares of Valero Energy Corp., Marathon Petroleum Corp. and Phillips 66 remain above consensus analyst price targets. The increased supply flexibility may relieve prices at the pump, but could also trim gasoline scarcity margins.
Gasoline · U.S. policy shock
Two weeks of supply relief test refinery premiums
Higher-volatility E10 can enter early, but elevated crude and uneven state waivers decide how much reaches drivers.
August 21, 202607:21 EDT · 13:21 CEST
U.S. premarket active
U.S. premarket active
Policy mechanism
AUG 20EPA announces early seasonal transition.
SEP 1Higher-RVP E10 may enter sale nationwide.
14 DAYSSupply flexibility arrives before normal timing.
20 DAYSMaximum waiver in Texas, Arizona and California.
Direct channel: more usable gasoline supply. Investor channel: softer scarcity margins for refiners.
Valuation premium versus average analyst target
| Refiner | Aug. 20 close | Move | P/E | Target gap | Value premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valero | $341.51 | -1.37% | 14.17 | -6.10% | $6.0B |
| Marathon | $358.23 | -0.70% | 12.54 | -8.98% | $9.0B |
| Phillips 66 | $240.00 | -0.95% | 13.71 | -6.82% | $6.5B |
Analyst recommendations
VLO Buy
9
VLO Hold
6
MPC Buy
9
MPC Hold
6
PSX Buy
8
PSX Hold
6
Bullish ratings persist. Average targets still sit below all three closing prices.
What decides the trade
Gulf Coast cracksFirst read on whether blending flexibility compresses margins.
Northeast spreadNew York and New Jersey rules can limit regional relief.
Retail pass-throughWholesale declines may not reach pumps immediately.
Iran and crudeSupply disruption can overwhelm a gasoline-specification change.
Prices: August 20, 2026, 16:00 EDT closes; dashboard assembled August 21, 2026, 07:21 EDT. Pump data: Reuters citing AAA. Policy: Reuters and EPA. Stock data and analyst consensus: Google Finance. Market-value premiums are estimates.
Phillips 66 Shares Approach All-Time High After Refiners Post Biggest Profit Since 2022, Surpassing Analyst Estimates
NEW YORK, August 14, 2026, 14:00 EDT — Phillips 66 hovered just below a record high on Friday as U.S. refiners delivered their highest combined quarterly profit since 2022. However, the stock currently trades above the average target set by Wall Street analysts, putting the focus on capital allocation as the next key issue for investors instead of the latest earnings outperformance.
Phillips 66 Heads $5 Billion Western Gateway Pipeline to Address California Fuel Shortfall
Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan, and HF Sinclair have approved the $5 billion Western Gateway Pipeline project. The companies have also completed the formation of their joint venture. This move advances a long-envisioned fuel corridor to the construction phase, following the closure of two significant refineries in California.
Oil Surpasses $100 Following Red Sea Tanker Strike; Energy Shares Trail Behind Rally in Crude
Brent crude surpassed $100 on Thursday, but U.S. energy stocks posted more modest gains. The divergence indicates investors view the situation as a sharp transport disruption rather than a fundamental change in earnings outlook.
U.S. refiners outperform oil majors with record diesel margins amid Hormuz disruptions
A basket tracking three U.S. refiners in equal weights increased 10.1% last week, outperforming the S&P 500 by 11.7 percentage points. U.S. cash trading was paused for the weekend following declines on Friday. Shares of Valero Energy advanced 10.3%, Marathon Petroleum climbed 10.2%, and Phillips 66 was up 9.8%.
US Diesel Exceeds $5 as Iran Tensions Boost Refiner Margins, Shipping Expenses
U.S. diesel climbed to $5.088 a gallon on Saturday. The price premium over regular gasoline expanded to $1.096, almost double the difference from a year ago.
Energy Stocks Week Ahead: Can U.S. Refiners Keep Beating the Oil Sector?
Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks around the Strait of Hormuz will dominate Monday’s open, but U.S. refiners look positioned to keep outperforming the broader energy sector. Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 delivered a simple average gain of 6.0% between the July 2 and July 10 closes, compared with 3.5% for the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund. Yes, refiners can retain that lead—but only while gasoline and diesel prices continue to outrun their crude-oil costs.
Oil Week: Diesel Premium Nears $80, Brent Sees Fresh Monday Gap
Oil futures set up for a choppy start Monday as U.S. and Iranian forces launched major missile and drone attacks over the weekend. Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz was shut, but Washington said ship traffic continued. U.S. Central Command said it hit 140 Iranian military positions Saturday after attacks on merchant ships.
U.S. Refiners Outrun Oil as Margins Touch Records This Week
Large U.S. refiners beat both crude and the wider energy sector this week. Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and Valero Energy each rose, averaging a 6.0% gain with each stock weighted equally. That compares to a 3.2% rise for the S&P 500 Energy index and about 4% for U.S. crude.
Gasoline crunch brings big gas stations, fuel margins into investor view
Investors tracking crude could miss what’s happening in fuels. Gasoline supply, retail margin, and store visits matter too. Russia is rationing after its refineries were hit. U.S. travel centers want people to use the pump as a way into buying food, coffee and other high-margin items. AAA reported regular gas at $3.81 a gallon Saturday. That’s down from $4.24 last month, but more than the $3.15 seen a year ago. Diesel at $4.80.
Refiners top oil majors among energy stocks in June 2026 as ETF weight shifts
Energy stocks in the U.S. finished June mixed, a split that wasn’t obvious on the sector tape. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund dropped along with oil majors and services, while two big refiners gained. The June 29 session was a regular U.S. trading day; according to the NYSE’s 2026 calendar, Juneteenth is observed June 19, with the next stock-market closure for Independence Day on July 3.
Energy stocks this week: U.S. sector ETF holds flat as oil falls
Energy stocks in the U.S. head into a short week trading with a more defined separation than crude futures show. Brent crude has pulled back, shedding most of its war risk pricing. But the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund isn’t tracking oil’s move down point for point.
Exxon Mobil Drops With Oil After U.S.-Iran Deal
Exxon Mobil shares slid Monday as oil prices sold off after the U.S. and Iran said they would end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Exxon last traded at $141.10, down about 4%. Shares hit a session low of $137.78. Brent crude dropped 5.02% to $82.95, while WTI lost 5.42% to $80.28 as of 10:54 a.m. EDT, according to Reuters.
Phillips 66 Stock Jumps as Surprise Profit Shows Refining Margins Are Back in Focus
Phillips 66 stunned the market with an unexpected first-quarter adjusted profit on Wednesday, pushing its stock up more than 6% by mid-day. The Houston refiner logged adjusted earnings at 49 cents per share, trouncing an average analyst forecast of a 40-cent loss, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.
Gas prices jump again: RBOB gasoline futures spike 6% as Iran conflict tightens supply
NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures surged Thursday, hitting $2.67 a gallon after climbing roughly 6% as oil prices rallied on renewed supply concerns tied to the Iran conflict.
U.S. gas prices jump as Hormuz disruption lifts refiners and gasoline ETF
U.S. drivers saw retail gasoline prices climb once more on Wednesday, as AAA pegged the national average for regular at $3.198 a gallon. That’s a jump from $3.109 the previous day and up from $2.975 just a week ago.
Gasoline prices near $3 as RBOB futures hold weekly gain; refiners in focus
Gasoline futures in the U.S. hovered at $2.0065 a gallon Friday afternoon, holding steady after moving between $1.9961 and $2.0244. That’s roughly a 5% gain compared to where things stood at the end of last week.
Energy stocks hit a record close as oil rebounds — what to watch before Monday’s open
Energy shares in the U.S. wrapped up Friday with a new sector high, lifted by a rebound in oil prices late in the week and gains across the wider equity market. Brent crude, a key international gauge, closed out at $68.05 a barrel. U.S. crude ended the day at $63.55.
Chevron stock price steadies near $167 after oil slides; CVX traders eye Venezuela shift, earnings next week
Chevron shares closed Thursday marginally lower, slipping 0.04% to $166.66. After-hours trading showed little movement following the 4 p.m. close.
CVR Energy stock jumps as oil volatility and U.S. inventory data keep refiners in focus
Shares of CVR Energy Inc climbed roughly 6.6% to $24.28 in afternoon trading Wednesday, following an earlier range from $22.90 up to $24.70.
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