LONDON, June 28, 2026, 18:13 (BST)
- U.S. markets are closed for the weekend. Next week will be a short week because of the Independence Day holiday.
- Brent dropped 10.86% last week with better flows through Hormuz, but the main U.S. energy ETF was little changed.
- Diesel margins, new U.S. drilling numbers, and a service lockout in Norway could push refiners and oilfield services stocks in different directions.
Energy stocks in the U.S. head into a short week trading with a more defined separation than crude futures show. Brent crude has pulled back, shedding most of its war risk pricing. But the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA:XLE isn’t tracking oil’s move down point for point.
XLE finished at $53.84 on Friday, slipping 0.4% from Monday’s close, according to daily numbers from Investing.com. Brent crude ended the session Friday at $71.99 a barrel, dropping 10.86% since the Thursday before, with the market having closed for a public holiday last Friday. Investing.com
The gap is important now as investors are moving away from treating the sector as just a spot-oil play. State Street data say XLE tracks the Energy Select Sector Index, covers oil, gas, fuel and energy services stocks, and had 21 holdings with a 12.06 forward P/E as of June 25.
| Week-ahead read | Latest data | Stocks most exposed |
|---|---|---|
| Crude risk premium | Brent $71.99; -10.86% since prior Thursday close | Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM, Chevron NYSE:CVX, ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP |
| Diesel margins | U.S. diesel crack at $62.84 a barrel, highest since June 3 | Valero Energy NYSE:VLO, Marathon Petroleum NYSE:MPC, Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX |
| U.S. drilling | Total rigs +10 to 573; oil rigs +7 to 440 | SLB NYSE:SLB, Halliburton NYSE:HAL, Baker Hughes NASDAQ:BKR |
| Norway services | 1,000 oil service workers locked out; output could fall 12,000 boepd next week | SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes |
Saudi Aramco TADAWUL:2222 has started loading crude again at Ras Tanura, Reuters said Friday, ending a pause that lasted almost four months. Two VLCCs loaded up at the terminal, according to the report. “There is a growing sense that oil is going to keep moving through the Strait of Hormuz,” Phil Flynn, Price Futures Group senior analyst, said. PVM’s Tamas Varga told Reuters the market now expects “imminent oversupply.” Reuters
Fuels are moving in opposite directions. The U.S. diesel crack spread touched a three-week peak last week even as WTI slid around 22% this month. Ultra-low sulphur diesel futures dropped just over 9%. “It is pretty clear at the moment that oil market tightness is concentrated in products rather than crude,” Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, told Reuters. Reuters
Refiners are moving differently than exploration and production names. Cheaper crude oil can push input costs down, and diesel supply tightness may keep margins firm. Valero added 1.7% on Friday. Marathon Petroleum was up 0.2%. Phillips 66 showed little movement, market data showed.
Oilfield services looking rougher. Baker Hughes said U.S. energy firms added 10 rigs for the week ended June 26, up the most in a week since June 2022. Oil rigs jumped by seven to hit 440, the highest count since June 2025.
Norway faces the flip side of that trade. About 1,000 oil service workers were locked out Saturday, and the standoff may hit drilling and some production across the Norwegian continental shelf. Offshore Norway said oil output might drop 12,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day next week. If the strike drags past mid-July, deeper production cuts could follow.
Barclays Plc LON:BARC cut its Brent price outlook, moving 2026 forecasts down to $96 a barrel and 2027 to $85, pointing to increased exports through Hormuz. But the bank also said inventories may drop for the next few weeks and expects its balance models to show a third-quarter deficit. Banks are cutting price decks, but aren’t saying the market will stay loose for long.
Saudi Aramco climbed 1.8% on Sunday, ending eight days of losses, but the main Saudi index slipped 0.2%. Markets in the Gulf remain on edge after Iran fired missiles and drones at U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
U.S. markets face a tighter week for energy headlines, with a holiday-shortened schedule. Reuters said June payrolls land on Thursday, and markets shut Friday for Independence Day. Energy traders also get the EIA weekly stocks and Baker Hughes rig counts before the long weekend.
