New York, July 11, 2026, 15:10 (EDT)
Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX finished at $176.40 Friday, gaining 4.3% over Tuesday’s close, with U.S. markets now shut for the weekend. But fresh numbers out of Alinta Energy showed its latest five-year gas deal working out to 9.2 petajoules a year on average, down 54% from the yearly volume locked in under its prior seven-year contract.
The split has become important. Investors are paying a supply-risk premium on oil, pushing up short-term profit forecasts. At the same time, an Australian contract is locking in a smaller annual buy from a key long-term customer. U.S. oil majors are on track for their best quarterly earnings since 2022, with LSEG estimates (via Reuters) showing Chevron and ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation NYSE:XOM could report profits more than triple last quarter’s.
Between July 2 and July 10, Chevron outperformed the S&P 500 by 3.0 points and beat ExxonMobil by 2.9 points. Its margin over ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP was just 0.1 point, according to .
| Asset | July 2 close | July 10 close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX | $169.20 | $176.40 | up 4.3% |
| ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation NYSE:XOM | $137.09 | $138.88 | rose 1.3% |
| ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP | $104.73 | $109.04 | gained 4.1% |
| S&P 500 | 7,483.24 | 7,575.39 | added 1.2% |
A petajoule, or PJ, is used in wholesale gas deals. The deal kicks in from July 2027, with gas coming from Chevron’s stakes in Gorgon, Wheatstone and the North West Shelf. Alinta CEO Jeff Dimery said the deal brings “greater certainty in our portfolio.” Alinta Energy
| Alinta agreement | Start | Term | Total volume | Annualized volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron’s earlier deal | 2020 | 7 years | 140 PJ | 20.0 PJ a year |
| Chevron’s new deal | July 2027 | 5 years | 46 PJ | 9.2 PJ a year |
| Difference | — | — | — | -54% |
This uses the previous deal of 20 PJ per year over seven years. Chevron’s earlier deal was just for Wheatstone gas. Price details were not given in either company’s release, so the yearly volume drop is not necessarily a 54% revenue cut.
The smaller Chevron deal alone doesn’t mean Alinta’s demand is down. On July 8, Alinta signed for over 30 PJ with LNG Japan Corporation, for delivery into the early 2030s. This shows the company is splitting its gas buys among different sellers instead of just reducing its long-term positions.
Chevron Australia President Balaji Krishnamurthy called Gorgon and Wheatstone “pillars of energy security” and said together they supply about 40% of Western Australia’s domestic gas. The new contract covers more assets than the previous Wheatstone-only deal, which could let Chevron adjust deliveries more easily, but the company didn’t release any operating terms. That’s only an assumption for now. Reuters
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. NYSE:JEF analyst Lloyd Byrne lowered his target on Chevron to $216 from $236 but stuck with a Buy. Byrne projects Chevron will post second-quarter adjusted EPS of $5.86, which is about 9% higher than the consensus. That figure would put adjusted profit at 4.2 times the $1.41 Chevron reported in Q1. The new price target is still about 22% above where shares closed Friday.
The setup can flip fast. “Gasoline prices have rallied alongside the massive move higher in crude oil,” said Alex Hodes, director of energy-market strategy at StoneX Group Inc. NASDAQ:SNEX, after attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude closed Friday at $71.41 a barrel, up 4% on the week, and Brent at $76.01, a 5.4% gain. If shipping normalizes, it could knock out some of the premium and hit Chevron’s upstream earnings. Reuters
Investors get the June U.S. consumer-price data Tuesday, July 14, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Producer prices and the EIA’s weekly petroleum report are due the next day, July 15. Chevron has its next major event with its Q2 conference call set for July 31 at 11 a.m. ET.
Chevron traded 5.9 million shares on Friday, about 40% under its 50-day average of 9.8 million. Shares are still down 17.8% from the March 30 high. Even with the 4.3% weekly gain, the move looks like an oil-price reset, not clear proof that Chevron boosted its long-term Australian gas portfolio.
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