NEW YORK, July 4, 2026, 10:02 EDT
- Chevron closed the holiday-shortened week off 1.1%. The stock still gained 2.1% on Thursday.
- Chevron’s second-quarter adjusted net, using LSEG forecasts and market cap, comes to 2.9% of its market value. That edges out Exxon, which sits at 2.8%.
- Oil’s flat week and softening crude risk turn focus to refining margins, gasoline prices, and Chevron’s latest move into data-center power.
- U.S. stock markets were shut Friday for Independence Day and are set to resume trading Monday.
U.S. stock markets closed Friday because the New York Stock Exchange put July 3 down as the observed Independence Day holiday for 2026. Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX only had four trading sessions this week, with Thursday’s action standing out more.
Chevron jumped 2.12% to $169.20 on July 2, but shares still finished down 1.1% from the June 26 close. Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM added 0.4% over that same period. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust NYSEARCA:SPY moved up 2.2%.
| Instrument | Ticker | July 2 close | July 2 move | Move from June 26 close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron | NYSE:CVX | $169.20 | up 2.12% | down 1.1% |
| Exxon Mobil | NYSE:XOM | $137.09 | up 0.59% | up 0.4% |
| Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund | NYSEARCA:XLE | $53.22 | up 0.78% | down 1.2% |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | NYSEARCA:SPY | $744.78 | off 0.13% | up 2.2% |
One metric getting less attention is what the stocks yield in near-term profit. Reuters said Friday analysts polled by LSEG see Chevron bringing in around $9.9 billion in adjusted net income for the second quarter—over three times its first-quarter result. With a market cap of about $336 billion as of Thursday, that’s a one-quarter profit yield of 2.9%. Exxon is on track for $15.9 billion, up against a $568 billion market cap, which puts its yield at 2.8%.
| Company | Expected Q2 adjusted net income | Market value | Q2 profit / market value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron | $9.9 bln | $336.0 bln | 2.9% |
| Exxon Mobil | $15.9 bln | $568.2 bln | 2.8% |
This is notable since Chevron is trading like it’s set for a solid quarter, but shares didn’t get a boost this week. The market looks to be splitting how it values cash flow and risk. Oil has eased back, pump prices are under the political microscope, and the company’s new power segment is still something for 2028.
Brent futures traded at $71.94 a barrel Friday afternoon, up 14 cents for the session and 5 cents under last Friday’s close. West Texas Intermediate was at $68.78. Reuters reported both benchmarks hit pre-war lows Thursday.
“Recovery in Middle Eastern supply is outpacing our initial expectations,” said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, according to a Reuters oil piece. That weighs on Chevron’s crude business, though refining margins help the quarter. Reuters
Fuel costs are also in focus. Reuters reported that gas prices are still about 22% higher than before the war, while benchmark crude has dropped back to those pre-war levels. “Gasoline prices don’t move in lockstep with crude oil,” said Bethany Williams, spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, to Reuters. Reuters
Chevron’s Project Kilby is a West Texas gas-fired power plant that’s supposed to serve Microsoft’s Pecos data center for two decades. The company expects the site to reach up to 2.67 GW, starting operations in 2028. GE Vernova NYSE:GEV and Caterpillar NYSE:CAT gear are set for use, Chevron said.
Jeff Gustavson, who runs Chevron’s new energies unit, told Reuters the company is checking out more spots in the U.S. for similar deals. “If we can put the right pieces together to meet our return thresholds,” Gustavson said, “you can see more announcements over time.” Reuters
U.S. stock markets reopen Monday. Chevron does not have a scheduled company event next week. The oil giant set its Q2 earnings call for July 31 at 11:00 a.m. ET, with CEO Mike Wirth, CFO Eimear Bonner, Gustavson and investor relations head Jeanine Wai slated to speak.
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