NEW YORK, March 29, 2026, 14:08 EDT
Bitcoin hovered around $66,300 on Sunday, kicking off the week under pressure after U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw two days of heavy outflows and a late slump pushed the token below $70,000. Traders are eyeing the next batch of U.S. economic data and news from the Middle East, both factors that continue to shape risk sentiment.
This matters with March—and the first quarter—wrapping up Tuesday, and a packed calendar right behind. The ISM manufacturing survey drops April 1, then the March U.S. payrolls report arrives April 3. Reuters pointed out that U.S. stock markets won’t be open for Good Friday when the jobs numbers hit, so while Wall Street is dark, bitcoin trading keeps running.
ETF flows took a hit heading into quarter-end. According to Farside Investors, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs bled cash in three of the past four sessions—shedding $171.3 million on March 26, then another $225.5 million on March 27. That pulled the week’s tally down by roughly $296 million, despite a $167.2 million inflow logged on March 23.
Friday’s slump coincided with a major quarterly derivatives roll, as about $14 billion in bitcoin options expired on Deribit March 27, according to industry reports. That’s nearly 40% of open interest—representing unsettled contracts—so traders are watching closely to see if the wave of position unwinding will ease off in the early part of this week.
Bitcoin isn’t alone in feeling the pressure. On Sunday, ether hovered near $1,991. Shares of Coinbase Global and Strategy both took a hit on Friday, losing roughly 7% and 5%. The moves highlight just how sharply crypto-linked assets can drop whenever the broader market shifts into risk-off mode.
The macro picture looks uneasy. Brent crude finished Friday at $112.57 a barrel. Gulf equities dropped Sunday, while Reuters noted U.S. 10-year Treasury yields punched through 4.4% as traders repriced inflation and growth risks linked to the Iran war. “Headline-driven” is how Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, described the likely mood in markets over the next few days. Reuters
Traders are watching the jobs report, set as the week’s top event. Economists polled by Reuters expect payrolls up 55,000 in March, unemployment steady at 4.4%. After February’s unexpected drop, “any positive number would probably be good for the market,” said James Ragan, co-chief investment officer at D.A. Davidson. Reuters
So bitcoin sits in limbo once again, eyeing either a shift in macro conditions or word of new policy. This month, Citi lowered its 12-month price call to $112,000, down from $143,000, and strategist Alex Saunders flagged the likelihood of “range-trading” until U.S. legislative signals emerge, putting $70,000 on the radar as a key threshold. Reuters
Still, it’s not all downside. Baird pointed out that if tensions in the Middle East cool off, oil might stabilize, possibly taking some heat off yields and market sentiment. Flip that, though—a spike in energy costs or payroll figures beating forecasts could push investors deeper into dollars and cash. On Citi’s numbers, a recession scenario drags bitcoin to $58,000.
Bitcoin starts the week battered, yet manages to stay above $66,000. On Friday, Reuters noted that while the cryptocurrency climbed alongside the dollar in March, it’s still over 20% lower for the year—evidence the market has calmed, though any strong rally remains elusive.
