NEW YORK, July 31, 2026, 17:08 EDT
- Shares of Super Micro Computer, Inc. NASDAQ:SMCI ended Friday at $28.40, gaining 2.4% on the day, though the stock declined 5.6% over the week.
- Initial fourth-quarter margins suggest gross profit will range from $1.65 billion to $1.87 billion on approximately $11 billion in sales.
- New orders in the fourth quarter topped $60 billion. The company will release its final quarterly results on Aug. 11.
Supermicro shares ended Friday higher, climbing 2.4%, though this gain was not enough to offset the week’s underperformance versus the Nasdaq, which the stock lagged by 7.2 percentage points. The regular session had ended, and after-hours trading was in progress.
Gross profit is the main concern. Early revenue is around $11 billion. Based on the given margin range, gross profit amounts to between $1.65 billion and $1.87 billion.
| Metric | Q3 FY2026 reported | Q4 preliminary: 15% margin | Q4 preliminary: 17% margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.24 billion | Roughly $11.00 billion | Roughly $11.00 billion |
| Gross margin | 9.9% | 15.0% | 17.0% |
| Gross profit | $1.02 billion | Roughly $1.65 billion | Roughly $1.87 billion |
| Sequential gross-profit change | — | Approximately +62% | Approximately +84% |
The Q4 scenarios are based on $11 billion in revenue, which is close to the lower bound of the guidance range. These are calculated examples, not actual results.
The Q4 results are still preliminary and unaudited. However, the gap is notable. Gross profit may increase between 62% and 84%, compared to a 7.4% sales rise.
With $11 billion in sales, a single margin point equates to approximately $110 million. Missing by two points would cut around $220 million. This level of sensitivity positions margin confirmation as the crucial test during earnings.
Demand looks substantial. Orders in the fourth quarter surpassed $60 billion, exceeding the low-end revenue estimate by over 5.4 times. However, these orders are spread across coming quarters, and some may lack firmness or could be delayed or cancelled.
The stock failed to maintain the entire margin rally. Last week, it lagged behind the three main benchmarks.
| Asset or index | Week ended July 31 | Gap versus SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| Super Micro | -5.6% | — |
| Nasdaq Composite | +1.6% | +7.2 percentage points |
| S&P 500 | +1.0% | +6.6 percentage points |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | +1.0% | +6.6 percentage points |
Weekly SMCI performance is based on closing values from July 24 and July 31.
The way was challenging. SMCI finished at $25.70 on Wednesday, posting a 10.5% rise across the following two sessions. However, it remained under the previous Friday’s close of $30.10.
Supermicro unveiled 10 new rack models on Thursday, highlighting its ability to deliver with a stated monthly production capacity of 3,000 units. The company noted that around two-thirds of this output is equipped with liquid-cooling technology.
“AI infrastructure starts with the right foundation,” Chief Executive Charles Liang said. The racks are compatible with NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA platforms, such as Vera Rubin and GB300. Super Micro Computer
Comparative data from industry peers highlighted the uptick in orders. Dell Technologies Inc. NYSE:DELL secured AI-server orders worth over $64 billion for its fiscal 2026.
| Company | AI-server order measure | Sales or shipments | Reported backlog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Micro | AI-server orders topped $60 billion in Q4 FY2026 | Preliminary Q4 sales approximately $11 billion | Backlog hits record; amount not detailed |
| Dell Technologies | AI-server orders surpassed $64 billion for FY2026 | FY2026 AI-server sales reached $24.68 billion | Backlog reported at $43 billion entering FY2027 |
The timeframes and definitions are not the same. Dell reports figures for an entire year, while Supermicro’s order number represents a single quarter and could account for non-binding orders.
The previous funding plan highlights the strain on working capital. Supermicro aimed for as much as $7 billion in equity and equity-linked financing, a portion of which would support the purchase of components needed for approximately $39 billion in new AI-server orders. This amount represents about 18% of the announced order total.
July employment data will be released on Aug. 7. Supermicro’s next scheduled company event is set for Aug. 11 at 5 p.m. ET. Investors are set to evaluate margins, assess order strength and review cash requirements.
Risks are still significant. The Q4 numbers are unaudited and preliminary. Supermicro notes concerns over customer concentration, tariffs, and order cancellations. The board is assessing deals associated with reported export-control matters. Equity-linked financing may dilute existing shareholders.
The sales outlook is already significant. Now, margins will determine the challenge for the share price. A shift of one percentage point may alter quarterly gross profit by roughly $110 million.
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