NEW YORK, August 20, 2026, 18:18 EDT — U.S. cash equity markets finished the session closed, with the most recent quoted trade noted at 17:38 EDT.
- StubHub was last trading at $6.83, roughly 9% under BofA’s $7.50 bearish price target.
- Revenue increased by 33% in the second quarter, but total costs and expenses climbed at a higher rate.
- The consensus price target of $11.63 suggests a 70% increase, highlighting a significant credibility gap.
Shares of StubHub Holdings, Inc. NYSE:STUB dropped 1.5% to close at $6.83 on Thursday, falling beneath BofA Securities’ reduced price target of $7.50.
This sharper signal is at the centre of the current analyst discussion. The market now sees BofA’s downside scenario as not bearish enough. However, the consensus target continues to suggest a significant rebound.
| Market measure | August 20 reading | Investor context |
|---|---|---|
| Latest price | $6.83 at 17:38 EDT | Fell 1.51% |
| Intraday range | $6.70–$7.06 | 5.4% movement from low to high |
| Volume | 6.03 million shares | Elevated trading after earnings |
| Market value | $2.59 billion | Valuation based on recent price |
| Change from $23.50 IPO | -70.9% | Investor sentiment has shifted since September 2025 |
The stock trades at a discount due to concerns over the quality of its growth. StubHub announced record gross merchandise sales and revenue for the second quarter. However, increased costs tied to the World Cup largely eroded returns for common shareholders.
| Second quarter | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross merchandise sales | $3.10 billion | $2.30 billion | up 34% |
| Revenue | $573.1 million | $430.3 million | up 33% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $105.7 million | $54.3 million | up 94% |
| Net income | $14.6 million | -$53.8 million | shifted to profit |
| Free cash flow | $309.7 million | $9.7 million | increase of $300.0 million |
StubHub posted net income of $14.6 million. However, after accounting for amounts allocated before common shareholders, the company recorded a common loss of $40,000, equating to zero cents per share. FactSet analysts had forecast earnings of 11 cents per share.
Chief Financial Officer Connie James stated that the event expenses were “not representative of our underlying margin structure.” Chief Executive Eric Baker described the World Cup as record-breaking and noted that demand for live events was still robust. Company statement
The cash figure is also important. Trailing free cash flow totaled $597.6 million, representing 23% of StubHub’s market capitalization. However, operating cash flow reflected the impact of when buyers paid and sellers received their funds.
| Cash and outlook test | Latest figure | What matters |
|---|---|---|
| TTM free cash flow | $597.6 million | Market value-to-FCF at 4.3× |
| Cash and equivalents | $1.69 billion | Total includes restricted funds |
| Payments due to sellers | $1.20 billion | Counteracts a significant portion of cash reported |
| Net leverage | 3.0× | Reduced from 4.5× at the end of the year |
| 2026 GMS outlook | $10.1–$10.3 billion | Guidance increased after Q2 |
| 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $400–$420 million | Projection reaffirmed, no increase |
During the first half, payments owed to buyers and sellers resulted in an operating cash inflow of $472.5 million. This renders the reported 4.3-times cash-flow multiple less straightforward than it initially seems.
| Analyst | Most recent view | Price target | Potential gain from $6.83 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Securities | Underperform | $7.50 | 9.8% |
| Guggenheim | Buy | $11.00 | 61.1% |
| Evercore ISI | Outperform | $14.00 | 105.0% |
| 14-analyst consensus | Mixed | $11.63 average | 70.3% |
The most recent bullish calls were affirmations of existing ratings, though with reduced targets. Guggenheim reiterated its Buy rating but decreased the target to $11. Evercore also maintained an Outperform, revising the target to $14. BofA referenced lower anticipated volumes for the second half and ongoing regulatory uncertainty.
Investors are seeking confirmation that World Cup expenses were one-off. Sustainable resale activity, improved working capital metrics and achievement of the $400 million EBITDA minimum would bolster the case for a rebound.
Risks: Demand could decline following the World Cup. Regulations may restrict fees or the economics of resale. The timing of seller payments could shift cash inflow patterns, and elevated leverage reduces tolerance for execution mistakes.
