NEW YORK, August 13, 2026, 15:15 EDT — U.S. equity markets traded unchanged.
- StubHub shares dropped 12.3% as expenses related to the World Cup offset a revenue surpass.
- Adjusted EBITDA for the second half needs to be between $222 million and $242 million.
- BofA lowered its rating on the stock and reduced its price target to $7.50.
Shares of StubHub Holdings, Inc. NYSE:STUB dropped 12.3% to $7.49 on Thursday. The company saw revenue rise due to unprecedented World Cup demand, but expenses eroded nearly all net profit for shareholders.
The less prominent assessment comes in the latter half. According to initial estimates, StubHub requires $222 million to $242 million in adjusted EBITDA to achieve its annual guidance, which remains unaltered.
| Q2 measure | Result | Year-earlier result | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross merchandise sales | $3.1bn | About $2.3bn | +34% |
| Revenue | $573.1m | $430.3m | +33% |
| Total costs and expenses | $553.6m | About $404m | +37% |
| Operating income | $19.5m | About $25m | Decreased |
| Net income/(loss) | -$0.04m | -$75.9m | Loss narrowed |
| Adjusted EBITDA | About $106m | About $52m | Almost doubled |
Revenue increased by 33% to reach $573.1 million, surpassing the $513.3 million FactSet consensus reported by the Wall Street Journal. Gross merchandise sales climbed 34% to $3.1 billion.
Expenses climbed at a quicker pace. Overall costs jumped 37% to $553.6 million. StubHub posted a net loss of $40,000, missing estimates of an 11-cent profit per share.
Adjusted EBITDA rose to almost $106 million, nearly doubling. The margin climbed to 18%. The difference between adjusted EBITDA and operating income expanded to approximately $87 million.
Chief Executive Eric Baker described the quarter’s revenue as a record. He told analysts that StubHub sold World Cup tickets to fans in over 150 countries.
Chief Financial Officer Connie James noted that the increased customer-service expenses were due to the tournament’s size. “These costs are not representative of our underlying margin structure,” she said. Wall Street Journal
| 2026 bridge | First-half actual | Full-year guidance | Required second half |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross merchandise sales | Roughly $5.3bn | $10.1bn–$10.3bn | $4.8bn–$5.0bn |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Approximately $178.1m | $400m–$420m | $221.9m–$241.9m |
| H2 versus H1 adjusted EBITDA | — | — | +24.6% to +35.8% |
Management increased its full-year GMS outlook to between $10.1 billion and $10.3 billion. The company maintained its adjusted EBITDA forecast at $400 million to $420 million.
The pairing signals a reduced transaction value for the second half compared to the first. However, EBITDA needs to increase by at least 25%. As the World Cup effect diminishes, improved margins will have to compensate further.
| Analyst or firm | Recommendation | New target | Prior target | Implied move from $7.49 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oppenheimer, part of Jefferies Financial Group NYSE:JEF | Buy | $11.00 | $12.00 | +46.9% |
| Guggenheim | Buy | $11.00 | $12.50 | +46.9% |
| Evercore ISI | Buy | $14.00 | $15.00 | +86.9% |
| BofA Securities, part of Bank of America NYSE:BAC | Underperform | $7.50 | $11.00 | +0.1% |
| Citi NYSE:C | Hold | $9.00 | $9.00 | +20.2% |
Wall Street turned more cautious. BofA Securities downgraded StubHub to Underperform, reducing its price target to $7.50. Guggenheim, Oppenheimer, and Evercore maintained positive ratings but trimmed their targets.
By 14:57 EDT, trading volume climbed to 16.2 million shares, exceeding the three-month daily average of 7.0 million by more than twofold. The market viewed the miss as material.
The share price is still 68% under its $23.50 IPO level. With a market capitalization of $3.25 billion on Thursday, investors have limited tolerance for further profit ramp-up delays.
Risks: Expenses related to the World Cup could be short-lived, enabling a swift recovery in margins. However, weaker transaction growth, regulatory challenges, refunds, and heightened competitive marketing may increase pressure on achieving second-half EBITDA targets.
The upcoming two quarters are expected to determine the outcome. StubHub needs to turn weaker transaction volumes into significantly greater profit, while also rebuilding trust in its platform.
