Refiners top oil majors among energy stocks in June 2026 as ETF weight shifts

NEW YORK, June 29, 2026, 16:57 (EDT)

• The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) dropped 4.8% for June through Monday, but Valero Energy NYSE:VLO added 8.8%. Marathon Petroleum NYSE:MPC gained 4.2%.
• Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM, Chevron NYSE:CVX and ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP accounted for 45.4% of XLE as of June 26, and together pulled roughly 3.2 percentage points off the fund’s June performance.
• Refiner stocks found support from product exports and refinery margins, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration calling for record U.S. net petroleum product exports in 2026.
• Investors are looking at the mix. Broad energy exposure missed the same move as holding refiners.

Energy stocks in the U.S. finished June mixed, a split that wasn’t obvious on the sector tape. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) dropped along with oil majors and services, while two big refiners gained. The June 29 session was a regular U.S. trading day; according to the NYSE’s 2026 calendar, Juneteenth is observed June 19, with the next stock-market closure for Independence Day on July 3.

The table lists May 29 closing prices and Monday’s latest data, pulled from public market sources. June return figures and estimated XLE impacts come from those prices and State Street’s index weights.

That’s why it matters. XLE handed investors a basket heavy on crude and big caps, not pure refiners. The top three names in XLE run about six times the price of just Valero and Marathon together. Phillips 66 slipped, but still did better than the majors. SLB’s drop was another weight.

The refiner bid found some support from the physical market. The EIA reported U.S. wholesale fuel prices rose on higher crude, while refinery margins also increased, mostly for diesel and jet fuel as buyers in Europe and Asia looked for alternative supplies. EIA now forecasts U.S. net exports of petroleum products at 5.6 million barrels a day in 2026—an annual record.

The International Energy Agency’s June oil report also pointed to tightening. The IEA sees global refinery crude throughputs down 2 million barrels per day by 2026, to 82 million bpd. Second-quarter volumes face a 4.7 million bpd year-on-year drop. The agency said global oil stocks dropped 143 million barrels in May.

Marathon CEO Maryann Mannen in May told investors the company is mostly insulated from global crude supply disruptions, pointing to U.S. and Canadian crude sourcing. Marathon reported a first-quarter refining and marketing margin of $17.74 a barrel, a jump of 32.6% from a year ago.

Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier sounded a more cautious note on the pace of any reset in the crude market. Lashier said between 90 million and 100 million barrels of crude are still stuck in the Strait of Hormuz and said that will take time to clear up. “We think there’s going to be some structural shift in what the crude floor is,” Lashier said. Reuters

Phillips 66 has cut about $1 a barrel in costs from its refining segment so far, CEO Mark Lashier said, aiming for $5.50. “We actually have improved our yield of high-value products,” Lashier told the Reuters Global Energy Forum. Reuters

June’s big winners could see gains unwind if crude flows return to normal before product margins come down. On June 15, U.S. energy stocks dropped after the U.S. and Iran struck a deal to end the conflict and reopen the Hormuz Strait. Brent crude slid 5.5% to $82.55 a barrel by 1420 GMT. Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and refining names all sold off. Ashley Kelty at Panmure Liberum said crude supply is “not likely to resume” near pre-war levels for months. Reuters

Barclays (LON:BARC) lowered its Brent outlook on June 26, now calling for $96 a barrel in 2026 and $85 in 2027, down from its prior targets of $100 and $88. The bank still expects a Q3 supply deficit, citing slow production recovery. UBS Group NYSE:UBS also dropped its Brent estimates, now sees $85 at both end-September and end-December, compared with previous forecasts of $105 and $95.