WASHINGTON, August 8, 2026, 4:06 p.m. EDT — U.S. cash markets ended trading for the weekend.
- USPS posted a net loss of $2.5 billion for its fiscal third quarter, reducing the shortfall by $562 million compared to the same period a year earlier.
- Shipping revenue climbed 7.7% after implementing an 8% parcel surcharge, even though volume dropped 3.4%.
- UPS advanced 0.3% last week, and FedEx climbed 3.6%. Attention now turns to inflation and retail sales data.
The U.S. Postal Service reported a fiscal third-quarter loss of $2.5 billion, reducing its deficit by $562 million as increased prices boosted revenue.
The outcome is significant not just for the state-owned carrier. It reflects a broader trend in the parcel market where pricing is taking priority over shipment volume.
The main figure for investors, implied package revenue per piece, increased approximately 11.5% to $5.31 from $4.76, according to USPS data. Package volume declined by 3.4%.
USPS reports results for fiscal third quarter ending June 30
| Metric | Fiscal Q3 2026 | Fiscal Q3 2025 | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating revenue | $19.940 billion | $18.797 billion | up 6.1% |
| Total volume | 25.427 billion pieces | 25.328 billion | increase of 0.4% |
| Shipping and Packages revenue | $8.250 billion | $7.662 billion | rose 7.7% |
| Shipping and Packages volume | 1.554 billion pieces | 1.609 billion | down 3.4% |
| GAAP net loss | $2.514 billion | $3.076 billion | $562 million less net loss |
| Controllable loss | $1.038 billion | $1.622 billion | improved by $584 million |
Based on USPS data. Rounding may cause minor discrepancies in changes.
Revenue growth extended past parcels, with Marketing Mail revenue up 12.3% and First-Class Mail increasing 4.3%. Marketing Mail was the sole category to see volume growth.
Costs continued to pose significant challenges. Operating expenses increased by 2.0% to reach $22.5 billion. During the quarter, USPS also postponed about $1.4 billion in pension contributions.
Postmaster General David Steiner stated the quarter demonstrated “the strong leverage that pricing can have on results.” Steiner added that USPS had “more price to take.” USPS
United Parcel Service NYSE:UPS reported a similar pattern, with domestic revenue per piece increasing by 9.3% and average daily package volume decreasing 3.3%. This comparison indicates that USPS is not initiating a price competition.
USPS against UPS: prioritizing price or volume
| Metric | USPS Shipping and Packages | UPS U.S. Domestic |
|---|---|---|
| Reporting period | April-June 2026 | April-June 2026 |
| Revenue growth | +7.7% | +6.0% |
| Package-volume growth | -3.4% | -3.3% |
| Revenue per piece | +11.5% implied | +9.3% |
| Adjusted operating margin | Product-level data not provided | 8.0% |
Figures are based on reported revenue and volume. Operational coverage varies, and UPS was in the process of implementing a previously announced cutback in major-customer activity.
Direct comparisons are constrained. USPS incurs universal service expenses across the country that private carriers avoid. UPS also adjusted its customer portfolio during the quarter.
FedEx Corp. NYSE:FDX posted an increase in U.S. package yields and volumes in its recent quarter. Revenue climbed 12.6%, but adjusted margin slipped to 8.4% from 9.1%. Chief Executive Raj Subramaniam said, “Our profitable growth strategy is working.” FedEx Investors
U.S. markets did not open on Saturday following a robust week. UPS ended at $104.50, an increase of 0.3% since July 31. FedEx climbed 3.6% to $318.57, aligning with the S&P 500’s gains over the week.
Market performance over the past week
| Security | Friday close | Friday move | Weekly move |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service | $104.50 | up 1.26% | gained 0.27% |
| FedEx | $318.57 | added 0.85% | rose 3.63% |
| S&P 500 | 7,757.64 | advanced 0.62% | climbed 3.6% |
Weekly stock movements are based on closing prices from July 31.
Initial sell-side forecasts are subject to revisions. According to FactSet, consensus price targets project an 11.2% gain for UPS and a 15.6% increase for FedEx based on Friday’s closing prices.
Analyst outlook — early consensus projections
| Company | Consensus | Buy or Overweight | Hold | Underweight or Sell | Average target | Implied upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service | Overweight | 14 | 14 | 4 | $116.24 | 11.2% |
| FedEx | Overweight | 21 | 8 | 3 | $368.13 | 15.6% |
*Implied upside is based on closing prices from August 7. Ratings and price targets reflect FactSet consensus figures.
Upcoming tests next week focus on macro indicators rather than individual companies. July’s CPI is released on Wednesday, with PPI following on Thursday. Retail sales data is due Friday. Inflation directly impacts transportation expenses, and shifts in retail spending reflect parcel demand.
Catalysts to watch in the coming week
| Date and time, EDT | Release | Relevance for parcel carriers |
|---|---|---|
| August 12, 8:30 a.m. | July Consumer Price Index | Influences expectations for wages, fuel and interest rates |
| August 13, 8:30 a.m. | July Producer Price Index | Affects costs for transportation and purchased services |
| August 14, 8:30 a.m. | July retail sales | Offers insight into consumer activity and e-commerce trends |
The Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau provide release times.
The pricing adjustment does not address the solvency issue facing the postal service. USPS delivers to over 170 million locations. According to Steiner, 70% of delivery routes and 58% of postal branches operate at a loss. Overall losses have surpassed $120 billion since 2007.
Risks: Congressional reform could be postponed, while the parcel surcharge is set to end January 17. Additional hikes could speed up volume declines. Private carriers contend with expenses including wages, fuel, and purchased transport.
For investors, the takeaway is more limited. USPS is focusing on price competition rather than relying on discounts. This allows UPS and FedEx to protect their yields. Margins are still the key indicator.
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