NEW YORK, March 4, 2026, 13:53 EST — Regular session
U.S. drivers saw retail gasoline prices climb once more on Wednesday, as AAA pegged the national average for regular at $3.198 a gallon. That’s a jump from $3.109 the previous day and up from $2.975 just a week ago.
Gas prices are spiking fast, tracing the war-fueled rally in oil and refined products and feeding directly into inflation pressures and household budgets. But diesel is making a louder move behind the scenes: futures ripped above $3 a gallon on Monday, levels last seen in November 2023. Energy economist Philip Verleger flagged that distillate inventories are “at the bottom of the normal range.” Reuters
Wholesale gasoline prices have tracked the climb in risk premiums. On Monday, U.S. gasoline futures finished up almost 4%. Trading volume hit a record: 12.7 million energy futures and options contracts changed hands on the Intercontinental Exchange, according to ICE. “We had a queue of oil producers,” said Matt Marshall, president of Aegis Hedging, describing the rush to secure prices while uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz persisted. Reuters
Fuel-related shares moved with the broader market. Valero Energy climbed roughly 2.8% to $223.86, while Marathon Petroleum was up around 4.3% at $221.17. Phillips 66 picked up 2.7% to close at $164.15. PBF Energy surged, up about 12.2% to $44.62. The U.S. Gasoline Fund, tracking gasoline futures, advanced 3.4% to $80.21. The S&P 500 ETF, for its part, rose about 0.9%.
Oil held steady after a choppy stretch, as U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran continued to choke off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for a fifth straight day, keeping nerves frayed. Brent shed 24 cents to $81.13 a barrel, with U.S. WTI off 27 cents at $74.30 by late morning in New York. The U.S. Energy Information Administration noted gasoline inventories dropped by 1.7 million barrels last week. “Markets seem to expect a de-escalation,” UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo said, but BOK Financial’s Dennis Kissler flagged lingering risk: “Look for price volatility to continue.” Reuters
UBS bumped up its Brent crude price outlook Wednesday, pointing to the Middle East conflict and what it described as an almost de facto closure of Hormuz. The bank’s new call: Brent at $71 a barrel for the first quarter, $72 for all of 2026—each figure $10 higher than before. Extended supply trouble, UBS warned, could send prices soaring above $100.
Goldman Sachs hiked its second-quarter 2026 Brent projection by $10, now calling for $76 a barrel, and raised its WTI target by $9 to $71, the bank wrote in a note. If Hormuz supply holds steady for another five weeks, Goldman figures Brent could hit $100—the threshold where demand would need to cool off to keep inventories from running dangerously low.
Standard Chartered also bumped up its first-quarter 2026 Brent price outlook on Tuesday, now targeting $74 a barrel versus the previous $62. The bank’s average forecast for 2026 jumped to $70 from $63.50. Analysts highlighted an “asymmetric upside risk” if conflict ends up hitting Iranian or other regional production, and pointed out OPEC+ settled on a modest 206,000 barrels per day increase for April. Reuters
The trade looks fragile. A whiff of negotiations, or proof that tankers are moving again, could erase the premium fast — and when gas prices climb, demand tends to wobble just as drivers eye spring travel plans.
Next up: watching for ships to resume traffic through Hormuz, plus next Wednesday’s U.S. petroleum status update—March 11—for any hints on gasoline supply, with refiners still shifting output between gasoline and diesel.
