NEW YORK, July 18, 2026, 11:24 EDT
- Valero rose 3.13% to finish at a record high of $309.65 on Friday.
- Shares increased by 10.3% during the week as U.S. refining margins reached record highs.
- Next assessment comes with July 22 inventory figures. Valero will announce Q2 earnings on July 30.
U.S. markets did not open on Saturday, so Friday’s record of $309.65 remained. Valero rose 10.3% compared to its close on July 10.
The rally has become a bet on third-quarter margin resilience, with timing proving crucial.
July’s record crack spreads emerged after the quarter ended on June 30, meaning they will not be reflected in Valero’s second-quarter earnings.
The NYMEX 3-2-1 crack spread finished Thursday at $69.66 per barrel, marking a record high for the third session in a row.
Diesel powered the margins, with its crack topping $91 as gasoline’s ended at almost $59.
Valero posted a refining margin of $14.90 per throughput barrel for the previous quarter. Average throughput reached 2.914 million barrels per day. Refining operating income totaled $1.8 billion.
Preliminary estimate: Every $1 of realized margin is equivalent to $2.914 million in daily earnings at this throughput. Over the 92-day third quarter, this shifts gross refining margin by approximately $268 million. A $5 change equates to around $1.34 billion.
This is not a projection. It is based on constant throughput, with operating expenses, depreciation, interest, and tax left out.
The exchange benchmark does not reflect Valero’s actual margin. Differences in crude slate, yields, local prices, hedging and outages can increase the discrepancy.
The latest valuation data from Friday indicates that investors are already paying a premium:
| Company | Friday close | Daily move | Market value | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valero Energy Corporation NYSE:VLO | $309.65 | up 3.13% | $92.3 billion | 22.6x |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation NYSE:MPC | $312.60 | up 2.21% | $92.2 billion | 20.6x |
| Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX | $206.86 | up 2.75% | $83.4 billion | 20.4x |
Data are as of Friday. Market capitalisations and multiples are rounded.
Valero’s trailing multiple was around 10% higher than the two-peer average. This premium indicates that some margin persistence may already be reflected in the share price. The comparison does not account for different business compositions.
Valero’s board approved a $1.20 quarterly dividend on Thursday, with payment set for August 31. This matches the company’s previous two payments in 2026.
Product inventories help underpin margins. Gasoline stocks dropped by 1.5 million barrels to 210.5 million, reaching their lowest level for this time of year since 2012. Refineries continued operating at 96.2% capacity.
Refiners will need to see higher gasoline prices before shifting back to maximum-gasoline production mode, John Kemp wrote on Thursday. Kemp, an independent oil analyst in London, made the comments.
The following test is set for Wednesday, July 22. The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly petroleum data after 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Traders are monitoring gasoline inventories and refinery activity. Continued declines amid high run rates would reinforce scarcity concerns, while a significant increase would cast doubt on them.
Valero will post its second-quarter earnings before markets open on July 30, with a conference call set for 10 a.m. EDT. Investors should distinguish those results from the stronger July benchmarks.
Risks: Brent and WTI climbed over 4% on Friday, settling at $88.10 and $82.49, respectively. Prolonged elevated crude prices may dampen fuel consumption. Factors such as inventory restocking, softer exports, or refinery shutdowns could also limit Valero’s gains.
Valero’s record price reflects some expectations of lasting margins. Weekly inventory data will challenge that view.
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