New York, Feb 2, 2026, 06:45 EST — Premarket
- U.S. gasoline futures dropped over 4% early Monday, following a steep decline in crude prices.
- Traders highlighted easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and a firmer dollar as key factors weighing on the market.
- U.S. pump prices held steady, hovering around $2.88 a gallon, AAA data shows.
U.S. gasoline futures dropped over 4% in early Monday trading, pulling back alongside crude as news on Iran eased some of the risk premium in energy markets. By 6:45 a.m. EST, NYMEX RBOB gasoline for March was trading about 8.6 cents lower, near $1.86 a gallon. (Google)
This shift is significant because gasoline stands out as one of the most noticeable prices in the U.S. economy. While wholesale price changes don’t show up at the pump immediately, they eventually influence gas prices and inflation numbers, affecting drivers down the road.
This comes at the start of a week when traders often recalibrate risk. A sharp drop in crude prices can drag gasoline down too, even if demand remains steady, since the entire complex tends to move as one.
Crude led the losses. Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped about 5% after President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington—a sign traders took as easing tensions with a key OPEC player. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed to the reduced geopolitical risk as a drag on prices. Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva added that a stronger U.S. dollar pressured the market further. (Reuters)
Broader commodity markets felt the squeeze as investors retreated from risk, following Trump’s choice of Kevin Warsh for the next Federal Reserve chair, which pushed the dollar higher. “A stronger U.S. dollar is also adding pressure … including oil,” noted Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Vivek Dhar. (Reuters)
Monday saw the U.S. national average for regular gasoline hit $2.875 a gallon, according to AAA data. (Aaa)
RBOB — short for reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending — serves as the key U.S. wholesale gasoline contract. Refiners and fuel distributors rely on it to hedge, while many traders track it closely to gauge refinery margins and demand outlooks.
Gasoline doesn’t mirror crude prices perfectly. Unexpected refinery shutdowns, sudden spikes in demand, or shrinking product stocks can drive gasoline prices up, even if crude weakens. That’s the risk for traders betting heavily on a crude selloff.
Inventory data follows. On Wednesday, Feb. 4, traders will focus on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum report, tracking shifts in gasoline stockpiles, refinery runs, implied demand, and crude inventories. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
