Merck stock rises ahead of earnings: MRK traders eye guidance and the Keytruda cliff

Merck stock rises ahead of earnings: MRK traders eye guidance and the Keytruda cliff

New York, Feb 2, 2026, 13:11 (EST) — Regular session

  • Merck shares climbed roughly 2.2%, hitting $112.67 by midday.
  • The drugmaker will report its results Tuesday, followed by a 9 a.m. ET conference call.
  • Analysts are projecting Q4 revenue around $16.12 billion, with adjusted EPS hitting $2.01.

Merck & Co shares climbed roughly 2.2% on Monday, pushing the price up to $112.67 by midday. During the session, the stock fluctuated between $109.80 and $112.74.

The shift happens just a day ahead of the drugmaker’s quarterly report, which investors still see as a key test of the 2026 outlook. The stock holds significant funds, largely due to its reliable cash flow.

Keytruda remains the main driver of that cash flow, with few new questions emerging. Traders are focused on where growth can come from beyond oncology and how the company will protect its margins in the years ahead.

StockStory previewed Merck’s upcoming earnings, scheduled before the bell on Tuesday. Wall Street forecasts $16.12 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter and adjusted earnings of $2.01 per share, with the “adjusted” numbers excluding some one-time charges. (StockStory)

Merck announced it will hold its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 sales and earnings call at 9 a.m. ET on Tuesday. A webcast and replay will be accessible following the event. (Merck)

The major long-term risk remains the patent cliff — sales are set to plunge once exclusivity ends and competitors roll out copies. Keytruda’s crucial patents start expiring in 2028, paving the way for biosimilars, which are close replicas of complex biologic drugs. Merck CFO Caroline Litchfield told Reuters that a subcutaneous version of Keytruda might be “novel, non-obvious and useful.” (Reuters)

Tuesday shifts focus away from the quarter and onto tone. Investors will zero in on pipeline timing, Keytruda’s lifecycle plans, and clues about how aggressively Merck plans to pursue deals.

Yet, that pre-earnings lift could vanish fast if guidance comes in light or if management signals a slower rollout for new therapies. Anything that drags out the Keytruda story — or limits the choices — usually dents sentiment quickly.

Next up: Tuesday’s results, followed by the 9 a.m. ET call on Feb. 3. Merck is set to share its 2026 outlook and address questions about Keytruda as it approaches patent expiry.

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