New York, Feb 2, 2026, 19:49 EST — After-hours
- Chevron shares ended 1.6% lower, dragged down as crude prices dropped over $3 a barrel.
- HSBC downgraded Chevron from Buy to Hold, citing valuation concerns following the stock’s rally into early 2026.
- Traders have their eyes on the Feb. 6 U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and Chevron’s dividend record date set for Feb. 17.
Shares of Chevron dropped Monday, slipping $2.87, or 1.6%, to finish at $174.03.
This matters because Chevron’s cash flow remains tied to crude prices, and that cash funds dividends and buybacks. With oil taking a sharp turn downward, investors are revisiting what “returns” might look like if energy stocks falter.
Oil prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, a development traders saw as easing tensions. U.S. crude ended down 4.7% at $62.14 a barrel, while Brent dropped 4.4% to $66.30. “The threats underpinned oil prices throughout January,” noted Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova. Reuters
HSBC downgraded Chevron from Buy to Hold but raised its price target to $180 from $169, pointing to stretched valuations following the stock’s rally. The bank noted a 16% gain priced into 2026, though it still commended Chevron’s strong financial discipline.
Chevron posted fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.8 billion, or $1.39 per share, according to its recent filing with U.S. regulators. Adjusted earnings came in higher at $3.0 billion, or $1.52 per share, excluding certain costs the company labels non-operational—pension settlement expenses were among those noted. The energy giant also boosted its quarterly dividend by 4%, raising it to $1.78 per share, payable March 10 to shareholders of record as of Feb. 17.
The company is ramping up its focus on Venezuela amid shifting U.S. policies. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said it’s exploring new opportunities there. CFO Eimear Bonner told Reuters they could boost output by 50% in 18 to 24 months if they get more U.S. approvals. “As we look for opportunities to grow, we will stay disciplined around capital, just as we always are,” Bonner added. Reuters
Chevron signaled weaker production in the first quarter. Scheduled maintenance and downtime, notably at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan, are expected to reduce output by 185,000 to 225,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day — a metric that translates gas volumes into an oil-equivalent figure — before production bounces back.
Chevron slipped despite the broader U.S. market holding steady. Exxon Mobil dropped 2.2% on Monday, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF — a stand-in for the overall index — finished just a bit up.
Investors are keeping a close eye on supply discipline from OPEC+ — the OPEC coalition that includes Russia — following the group’s decision to hold output steady for March. On Monday, OPEC announced it had received updated compensation plans from Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman, after those countries overshot their quotas. These new schedules extend through June 2026.
The near-term picture is tangled. Should crude lose its geopolitical premium and the dollar stay strong against commodities, big oil stocks might shift from “steady return” plays to just another beta bet. Reuters
Traders will be eyeing whether oil steadies following Monday’s drop and if the bounce in crude can gain momentum. The next major event to watch is the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, set for Feb. 6 in Turkey.
