COPENHAGEN, Feb 3, 2026, 18:28 CET
- Novo forecasts 2026 adjusted sales and operating profit down 5%-13% at constant exchange rates
- U.S.-listed shares fall about 12% as pricing pressure and competition bite
- Company points to early U.S. uptake of its Wegovy pill, but flags patent expiries and lower realised prices
Novo Nordisk on Tuesday forecast a fall in 2026 sales and operating profit on an adjusted basis, pushing its U.S.-listed shares down about 12% in afternoon trade.
The Danish drugmaker said it expects adjusted sales growth of -5% to -13% at constant exchange rates, which strip out currency swings, and the same range for adjusted operating profit.
The warning matters now because the obesity-drug gold rush is moving into a messier phase. Prices are sliding, insurers are tightening coverage, and new pill options could either widen the market or just reshuffle share between Novo and Eli Lilly.
It also lands just as investors are trying to pin down what the long-term market is really worth. Forecasts for GLP-1 drugs — medicines that mimic a gut hormone to curb appetite and lower blood sugar — are getting revised as discounting spreads and more rivals line up.
For 2025, Novo said sales rose 10% at constant exchange rates to 309.1 billion Danish crowns, while operating profit grew 6% to 127.7 billion crowns. CEO Mike Doustdar said the company would face “pricing headwinds in an increasingly competitive market,” while pointing to early U.S. uptake of the Wegovy pill. Globenewswire
Novo is also changing how it talks about growth. It introduced non-IFRS “adjusted” measures — numbers outside standard international accounting rules — to strip out exceptional items, including a $4.2 billion reversal of sales rebate provisions tied to the U.S. 340B Drug Pricing Program, a discount scheme for certain hospitals and clinics. On a non-adjusted basis, the midpoint of 2026 guidance would be a 1% sales decline and 11% operating profit growth, it said. Globenewswire
Novo said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration cleared its once-daily Wegovy pill on Dec. 22 and it launched the drug on Jan. 5. Weekly prescriptions reached around 50,000 by Jan. 23, driven mainly by patients paying out of pocket, the company said, while Lilly works on its own oral obesity treatment.
Before the update, analysts tracked by Investing.com had expected fourth-quarter earnings per share of 92 cents on revenue of $11.99 billion and were focused on U.S. prescription trends and the “gross-to-net” hit — the gap between list price and what the company keeps after rebates and discounts. One analyst called the U.S. market a “must-win battle” and a “show me case” as Lilly pushes Zepbound and works toward approval of its own pill. Investing
Wall Street has been trimming some of its biggest obesity-drug forecasts as prices fall and generic competition looms, Reuters reported on Monday. “The peak has come down a little bit,” said Terence McManus of Bellevue Asset Management, while Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten said, “That $150 billion pie is gone.” Pfizer, which is building its own obesity portfolio, has still said the market can reach $150 billion by 2030. Reuters
Some commentators see the sell-off as a valuation story. In a Feb. 2 column, The Motley Fool’s Reuben Gregg Brewer pointed to Novo’s price-to-earnings ratio — a common metric that compares a share price to earnings — of around 18 versus about 50 for Lilly, alongside a dividend yield near 2.8%. Fool
CNBC host Jim Cramer leaned more cautious, calling Novo “a hold, not a buy” in a Jan. 10 segment cited by Insider Monkey. He said he still preferred Lilly and its chief executive, David Ricks, while watching how quickly pill competition changes the balance. Insidermonkey
But the near-term path is murky. Lower prices might not lift volumes fast enough to protect margins, and pills could pull demand from injections rather than expand the overall market, especially if insurers limit coverage and patients balk at out-of-pocket costs.
Novo said it will ask shareholders on March 26 to approve a final dividend of 7.95 crowns per share for 2025 and it plans a new share buyback of up to 15 billion crowns. An earnings call is scheduled for Wednesday at 1300 CET.
