New York, Feb 4, 2026, 12:52 EST — Regular session
- Confluent shares slipped alongside a broader drop in software stocks, trading roughly 2% below IBM’s $31 cash bid
- Traders are keeping an eye on Confluent’s earnings report due Feb. 11 and the shareholder vote on the deal set for Feb. 12
- The gap between the spread and the offer price now serves as the daily indicator for deal timing and risk
Confluent (CFLT.O) shares slipped 0.4% to $30.34 on Wednesday, staying within a tight range and roughly $0.67 short of IBM’s $31-per-share cash bid. Volume was heavy, as IBM’s stock dropped around 4%.
That gap often outweighs what the tape shows. Since the buyout news broke, Confluent has behaved like a merger-arbitrage stock, with the spread to the offer price shifting as investors weigh the timeline and the risk of a hiccup.
The clock is ticking as major software stocks falter once more. U.S. equities saw a mixed session Wednesday, dragged down by a selloff in software and cloud sectors amid fears that rapid AI advancements might upend traditional business models. One portfolio manager summed up the mood, saying he was “bearish on software in general.” (Reuters)
In December, IBM announced it will acquire Confluent for $31 a share in cash, aiming to wrap up the deal by mid-2026, pending shareholder and regulatory sign-offs. The company also revealed that voting agreements represent roughly 62% of Confluent’s voting rights. (IBM Newsroom)
Confluent plans to report its fourth-quarter and full-year results on Feb. 11, following the U.S. market close. The company also announced it won’t hold an earnings call or offer a financial outlook due to the pending IBM deal. (Nasdaq)
Confluent shareholders are scheduled to vote the next day. According to a definitive proxy statement, the special meeting will take place on Feb. 12 at 9:00 a.m. Pacific time, conducted via webcast. (SEC)
Regulators remain a key variable. According to a filing, the U.S. antitrust waiting period set by the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act ended on Jan. 12, shifting focus to other approvals and the shareholder vote as the primary remaining obstacles. (SEC)
Still, the “but” for traders is clear: the deal isn’t sealed, and Confluent’s stock won’t rise above $31 unless the terms shift. If approvals stall, or regulators abroad clamp down harder, the spread could widen fast — and any setback would probably send shares tumbling back to pre-announcement levels.
Investors will be keeping an eye on whether the software selloff intensifies and if the gap to $31 shifts significantly for the remainder of the session. Looking ahead, the calendar is straightforward: Confluent reports earnings on Feb. 11, followed by its shareholder meeting on Feb. 12.
