London, 09:10 GMT, February 5, 2026 — Regular session
Shell SHEL.L shares dropped 1.6% by 0817 GMT on Thursday following a fourth-quarter profit that fell short of forecasts. The broader STOXX 600 index showed little movement.
This reaction is crucial as the market gauges how long Big Oil can keep returning cash to shareholders amid softer crude and gas prices. Even a slight miss raises pressure on the next buyback payout.
Shell posted adjusted earnings of $3.3 billion for the quarter, its preferred profit metric, alongside $9.4 billion in cash flow from operations. The company boosted its quarterly dividend by 4% to $0.372 per share and unveiled a new $3.5 billion buyback program aimed at repurchasing and canceling shares. Net debt ended the year around $45.7 billion, with gearing—the ratio of debt to capital—at 20.7%. “2025 was a year of accelerated momentum,” CEO Wael Sawan said, highlighting $26 billion in free cash flow and $5.1 billion in cost savings since 2022. Shell
Analysts had forecast $3.5 billion in adjusted earnings, based on a company-supplied poll. Shell’s actual $3.3 billion marked its weakest quarterly profit since early 2021. Operating cash flow came in at $9.44 billion, beating the $7.87 billion estimate but falling short of last year’s $13.16 billion. Brent crude averaged roughly $63 per barrel during the quarter, down from $74 a year earlier. Meanwhile, Dutch TTF gas prices slipped to about 30 euros per megawatt hour, compared with 43.3 euros previously.
The miss shifts focus onto the volatile segments — refining, chemicals, and trading — where prices can jump suddenly. Investors are watching closely to see if the company sticks to its “steady buyback” commitment when these areas come under pressure.
The cash-return promise comes with a catch: if oil or gas prices drop again, or chemicals remain sluggish, buybacks are the quickest tool to trim. Taking on more debt means less wiggle room when the cycle shifts.
Shell’s shares traded quietly on the European tape as investors awaited central bank decisions scheduled for later in the day. In such a market, individual stock drivers like earnings take center stage.
Shell revealed a $3.5 billion buyback plan lasting about three months, executed through one broker with contracts split equally between London and the Netherlands at $1.75 billion each. The programme caps at 400 million shares and may continue through May 1, depending on market conditions.
By cutting the share count, buybacks can boost per-share metrics even if profit growth stalls. They also drain cash, so investors will be keeping an eye on repurchase activity as well as commodity prices throughout the quarter.
Shell announced the ex-dividend date for its ordinary shares as Feb. 19, while the U.S.-listed American depositary shares (ADSs) will go ex-dividend on Feb. 20. Payments are scheduled for March 30. Investors will be watching these dates closely, along with early signs of how quickly Shell rolls out its new buyback program.
