Helsinki, February 5, 2026, 14:28 EET — Regular session
- Neste shares slip as the company forecasts flat Renewable Products volumes for 2026
- Q4 comparable EBITDA surged to 601 million euros; dividend proposal remains steady at 0.20 euro per share
- Investors are focused on the 3 p.m. Finland call, looking for updates on renewables margin and demand details
Neste Oyj shares dropped Thursday following the Finnish biofuel producer’s warning that its renewable product sales volumes in 2026 will stay roughly flat compared to 2025. The announcement rattled investors expecting growth. By 14:28 EET, Neste (NESTE.HE) had fallen 4.65% to 20.51 euros, while Finland’s Helsinki 25 index slipped about 1%. (Trading Economics)
The outlook is crucial since Renewable Products is the segment investors focus on most: renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Here, strong demand can rapidly boost volumes and margins, pushing up earnings fast.
A flat volume forecast signals caution, despite a solid finish to 2025. It also raises questions about whether the next growth phase relies more on pricing power or just ramping up output through existing capacity.
Neste reported a jump in comparable EBITDA—their measure of operating cash profit—to 601 million euros in Q4, up from 168 million a year ago. Net profit swung to a positive 114 million euros, reversing a 135 million euro loss. Looking at 2025, comparable EBITDA hit 1.683 billion euros on revenues of 19.016 billion euros. Renewable Products sales totaled 4.134 million tonnes, with a comparable sales margin of $479 per ton in the quarter. The company proposed a dividend of 0.20 euros per share. For 2026, it expects renewables volumes to hold steady, while Oil Products volumes will dip due to scheduled maintenance. Capex excluding acquisitions is forecast at 1.0–1.2 billion euros. An investor call is set for 3 p.m. Finland time. (Neste)
RBC analyst Adnan Dhanani described the volume guidance as “soft relative to market expectations,” pointing out that the market had anticipated about 4.52 million tonnes for 2026. He added, “We expect margin commentary to be closely watched but think the volume outlook may weigh on sentiment today.” (Investing)
The dip unfolded on a quieter European session, with stocks edging down as investors parsed earnings reports and awaited the European Central Bank’s policy announcement due later today. (Reuters)
Nesta bulls point to a notably stronger fourth quarter, highlighting improved margins and sharper operational execution. Management also continued to emphasize ongoing performance improvements and stricter capital discipline.
Still, the downside remains straightforward to outline. Renewable fuel margins fluctuate sharply with diesel prices and waste-and-residue feedstock costs. If demand falters, prices will take the hit before volumes do. Plus, the scheduled maintenance shutdown in Oil Products will weigh on 2026 volumes—and if refining margins slip, cash flow will suffer accordingly.
Traders are focused on the 3 p.m. conference call for clearer insight into 2026 renewables margins, the demand outlook in Europe, and management’s view on the earnings shift from “better in Q4” to “better for a full year.” The dividend schedule — with a record date of March 27 and a payment planned for April 7 if approved — is also noted, but the guidance details in the coming hours could have a bigger impact on the stock than the dividend itself.
