New York, Feb 6, 2026, 09:04 EST — Premarket
- Confluent shares held steady before the open, closely matching the cash takeover price.
- A new SEC filing includes additional merger disclosures following shareholder demand letters and two lawsuits filed in New York.
- Traders are eyeing next week’s quarterly earnings and the shareholder vote on the IBM deal set for Feb. 12.
Confluent Inc shares held steady near $30.36 in premarket Friday, as investors absorbed fresh merger filings with regulators. IBM, the acquiring company, ticked up roughly 0.3%.
The clock is ticking. Confluent shareholders must decide on IBM’s $31-per-share cash bid by Feb. 12, pushing the stock to trade less on software demand and more on the odds the deal actually closes.
Confluent plans to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after the U.S. market closes on Feb. 11. However, the company confirmed it won’t hold an earnings call or issue a financial forecast as long as the IBM deal remains pending. 1
On Feb. 4, Confluent revealed it had received 17 demand letters from alleged shareholders accusing the merger proxy statement of omitting or misstating key information. The company also noted two lawsuits filed in New York state court in late January. While denying any wrongdoing or the necessity for more disclosure, Confluent said it would voluntarily provide “supplemental disclosures” to mitigate litigation risk.
Confluent closed Thursday’s session at $30.36, edging up 0.1%, on volume near 62 million shares. Its price remains about 2% under IBM’s $31 bid — a spread investors often interpret as a messy signal on the likelihood the deal will wrap up as planned. 2
In December, IBM agreed to acquire Confluent for $31 a share in cash, putting the deal’s enterprise value at roughly $11 billion. The deal is expected to close by mid-2026, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna described the acquisition as creating “the smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI.” 3
The wider market hasn’t offered much support. U.S. software stocks remain volatile this week, with investors wary of hefty AI spending projections from megacap tech firms. That pressure has pushed the sector toward a sharp weekly drop, despite futures holding steady on Friday. 4
This is still a merger-arb play with plenty of risks. Shareholder approval is pending, regulatory hurdles could drag on, and merger litigation tends to ramp up as the vote approaches. Should the deal falter or collapse, Confluent shares could swiftly fall back to pre-offer levels.
