New York, February 6, 2026, 11:27 EST — Regular session
- Shares of UnitedHealth climbed 1.9% to $273.79, clawing back some losses from Thursday’s drop
- Mizuho lowered its price target to $350 from $430 but maintained an Outperform rating
- April 6 is the date investors are eyeing for CMS’ final call on the 2027 Medicare Advantage rates
Shares of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated climbed 1.9% to $273.79 by late morning on Friday, bouncing back from a drop the day before. The stock fluctuated between $269.12 and $276.91, with roughly 7.8 million shares traded.
The industry is still wrestling with how Medicare Advantage — private plans for seniors — will be reimbursed in 2027, and whether insurers can make up for rising care costs. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has floated a tiny 0.09% average increase and will release its final rate decision on April 6. This update also adjusts “risk adjustment,” the system that boosts payments when patients are sicker. 1
The policy backdrop is clashing with a new wave of earnings and guidance that’s anything but straightforward. The swings have been sharp, with traders parsing every insurer’s cost remarks for clues on the whole sector.
Thursday saw Molina Healthcare shake up the sector with a 2026 profit forecast well under Wall Street’s estimates. The company also announced plans to exit its traditional Medicare Advantage Part D plans by 2027. CEO Joseph Zubretsky described 2026 as “a trough year” for Medicaid margins. The news weighed heavily on competitors, pushing shares of UnitedHealth and Humana down more than 3% each in after-hours trading. 2
By Friday morning, the tape showed a clear divide. Molina shares tumbled nearly 28%, and Centene dropped about 5.5%. On the other hand, UnitedHealth edged up, with Humana gaining close to 1% and Cigna climbing around 3%.
Analyst chatter is fueling volatility. Mizuho cut its price target on UnitedHealth to $350 from $430 but maintained an Outperform rating, pointing to a “pushed out” earnings recovery following the company’s Q4 report. 3
Centene’s outlook on Friday didn’t exactly ease jitters, but it offered investors more than just the Molina surprise to chew on. The company projected 2026 profits above estimates. CEO Sarah London credited “disciplined execution” for finishing 2025 slightly ahead of expectations, while CFO Drew Asher expressed confidence in fourth-quarter fundamentals. Still, Baird analyst Michael Ha cautioned that Molina’s massive miss might limit any upside. Adding to concerns, Centene’s medical cost ratio — the percentage of premium revenue spent on medical care — climbed to 94.3%, up from 89.6% a year ago. 4
Regulatory risks have resurfaced following this week’s pharmacy-benefits settlement. Cigna’s Express Scripts reached an agreement with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission over insulin pricing practices. Meanwhile, the FTC’s lawsuit against UnitedHealth’s Optum unit and CVS Caremark is still ongoing; UnitedHealth didn’t immediately respond, Reuters reported. Express Scripts emphasized, “Our priority is simple: lowering drug costs for Americans.” 5
UnitedHealth has been setting the bar since it reported late-January results. It projects 2026 revenue topping $439.0 billion and adjusted earnings above $17.75 per share. CEO Stephen Hemsley noted the company “finished 2025 as a much stronger company.” 6
The rebound could shift fast. Should CMS hold to a near-flat Medicare Advantage update while medical utilization remains elevated, investors might delay expectations for margin recovery once more—particularly for plans linked to government programs, where rate adjustments trail cost increases.
On April 6, CMS will release the final 2027 Medicare Advantage rate notice. Traders are also keeping an eye on potential developments in the FTC’s PBM case, along with new updates on medical-cost trends as additional insurers revise their forecasts.
