New York, Feb 7, 2026, 11:09 (EST) — The last bell for the market has rung.
- Micron wrapped up Friday up 3.1% at $394.69, shrugging off a choppy session.
- UBS raised its price target to $450, pointing to stronger pricing trends in both DRAM and NAND.
- Semianalysis questioned the scale of Nvidia’s HBM4 supply that Micron is actually poised to take on.
Micron Technology, Inc. climbed 3.08% on Friday, finishing the day at $394.69 after ranging between $372.87 and $396.65. With U.S. markets shut, talk is picking up ahead of Monday—some are backing Micron’s AI memory potential, while others question whether it can hold its ground competitively. 1
Why now: Memory has jumped into the spotlight as a crucial front in the AI arms race. Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta together are set to unleash more than $630 billion on AI investments this year, a surge that’s pushed supplier demand through the roof. 2
UBS dialed up its Micron price target to $450 from $400 on Friday, maintaining its Buy rating. The bank pointed to an anticipated 62% spike in DDR memory contract prices for early 2026, alongside a projected 40% surge for NAND flash, and flagged ongoing supply constraints potentially stretching into 2027. 3
The narrative shifted sharply. Semianalysis has cut its forecast for Micron’s share of Nvidia’s upcoming HBM4 orders to zero, putting it plainly: “We currently do not see indications of Nvidia ordering Micron HBM4.” Now, the expectation stands at about 70% of Nvidia’s HBM4 supply going to SK Hynix, with Samsung handling the remaining 30%. Semianalysis says concerns about Micron’s base-die design and speed aren’t going away. 4
HBM, or high-bandwidth memory, is stacked DRAM built for AI chips. It’s a higher-margin product, and landing a supplier role on next-generation designs can lock in hefty, multi-year orders.
Amazon didn’t bother with subtlety this week: It’s targeting $200 billion in capital spending for 2026, blowing past the $131 billion it flagged for 2025. Reuters reports the surge is all about scaling up AI infrastructure. “The market just dislikes the substantial amount of money that keeps getting put into capex for these growth rates,” said Dave Wagner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, in the Reuters report. 5
Tensions remained. “The market’s viewpoint is that the AI build-out trade … got too pricey,” Andrew Wells, chief investment officer at SanJac Alpha, said to Reuters on Friday. That same day, the S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the Nasdaq tacked on 2%. Nvidia jumped 7%, Reuters reported. 6
Micron’s got a hitch: a lot of that optimism has already been priced into the stock. If memory prices stop climbing, or if customers balk at paying more, the company’s earnings—always at the mercy of cycles—could take a sharp turn down.
This isn’t abstract: the HBM4 question comes with real consequences. If Micron ends up excluded from Nvidia’s next memory stack, investors might start to question just how much of the AI profit pool the company is actually able to secure, particularly versus its rivals.
Micron execs are on deck for Wolfe Research’s Auto, Auto Tech and Semiconductor Conference, scheduled for Feb. 11 at 8:50 a.m. EST, according to the company’s investor relations page. Investors will be watching for updates on the HBM ramp, where things stand on customer qualification, and any fresh hints of supply tightness. Eyes will also be on whether there’s a new angle to the HBM4 narrative. 7
