New York, Feb 7, 2026, 13:23 EST — The market has closed.
- Molina tumbled 25.5% Friday, slashing its 2026 profit outlook well under expectations. Healthcare ETF XLV, though, finished up 1.8%.
- Centene posted a profit forecast ahead of Wall Street’s estimates, yet shares slipped. Cigna topped consensus for the quarter, though the company cautioned about a weaker outlook for 2026.
- Monday opens with traders tracking medical-cost trends, fresh attention on GLP-1 compounding, and PBM formulary shifts on the radar.
Molina Healthcare plunged 25.5% to $131.72 on Friday, after the company told investors to brace for at least $5 in adjusted earnings per share in 2026—missing what analysts had penciled in. The Medicaid specialist also plans to pull out of Medicare Advantage Part D prescription drug plans starting in 2027. CEO Joseph Zubretsky described 2026 as a “trough year” for Medicaid margins. Molina attributed the trimmed outlook to losses from its Part D business and a fresh Florida Medicaid contract, each dragging estimates by $1 and $1.50 per share. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) didn’t follow Molina lower, instead picking up 1.8% to finish at $157.71. 1
This split is key for Monday, with managed-care investors still wrestling over one thing: Are prices finally starting to match medical costs in those government-backed plans, or will 2026 bring yet another round of resets?
Drug pricing issues are cropping up again. Cheaper options, whether compounded weight-loss knockoffs or biosimilars, are appearing more quickly, and the sector doesn’t always behave like the “safe” bet investors hope for when those stories break.
Centene on Friday projected its 2026 profit would top what Wall Street had penciled in, but the stock still slid 3.7%, closing at $38.46. CEO Sarah London credited “disciplined execution” for putting 2025 results “slightly ahead” of expectations. CFO Drew Asher said medical costs landed “slightly better” than anticipated as the year rolled over. Michael Ha at Baird pointed to Molina’s recent miss as a likely reason Centene shares couldn’t catch a bid. The company also cited pressure from President Donald Trump’s tax and budget bill, plus the phase-out of pandemic-era ACA subsidies. 2
Cigna closed out Friday with a 2.6% gain, finishing at $292.05. The company topped fourth-quarter profit and revenue estimates, thanks in large part to Evernorth, its pharmacy benefit arm. Still, its 2026 outlook underwhelmed: management set the bar at adjusted profit of at least $30.25 per share and revenue near $280 billion. Oppenheimer’s Michael Wiederhorn noted Evernorth “appears to be on-track” as Cigna shifts to a new rebate-light model. CFO Ann Dennison described the guidance as “appropriate prudence” in a costly environment. The medical loss ratio crept up to 88%, reflecting a bigger share of premiums going to care. 3
Obesity drug names took a hit on catalyst risk Monday, after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary promised “swift action” in response to companies pushing “illegal copycat drugs” to the masses. The warning came right after Hims & Hers rolled out a $49 compounded version of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. Shares in Hims dropped 10% after hours on the remarks. More pharmacies are compounding—mixing or tweaking medicines to replicate branded drugs in different doses—as patients chase lower prices. Still, Bernstein’s Christian Moore doesn’t expect U.S. authorities to intervene soon: “not holding [his] breath,” he said. A spokesperson for Eli Lilly, which faces similar copycat threats, said “patients deserve better than untested knockoffs.” 4
Payers are moving in lockstep. CVS Health’s Caremark pharmacy benefit manager will drop Amgen’s Prolia and Eli Lilly’s Forteo from select preferred drug lists, opting for cheaper alternatives as of April 1. CVS stock closed Friday at $78.35, a 2.7% gain. The company said shifting to biosimilars and generics would slash prescription costs by over half. Amgen’s worldwide Prolia sales hit around $4.4 billion in 2025. Biosimilars — almost identical to original biotech drugs — are part of that cost-cutting push. CVS points out it, along with Cigna’s Express Scripts and UnitedHealth’s Optum Rx, controls roughly 80% of the U.S. prescription drug market. 5
Friday’s rally pushed the Dow past 50,000, with the S&P 500 notching a 2% gain as chipmakers jumped on speculation about increased AI infrastructure outlays. In healthcare, Eli Lilly advanced 3.7%, Pfizer climbed 2.7%, UnitedHealth picked up 3.0%, and Johnson & Johnson edged up 0.9%. 6
The risk stands out: If Medicaid rates don’t catch up with real care demand, more insurers might end up slashing forecasts mid-year—and the sector could see a swift repricing.
If the FDA doesn’t move from warnings to actual enforcement, lower-cost compounded GLP-1s might keep putting pressure on prices—and on the big hopes fueling the obesity-drug surge.
Next up: Monday’s U.S. action will show if the healthcare divide holds—insurers feeling heat, drugmakers holding ground. Mark down April 1; that’s when CVS rolls out its formulary changes. Still, the FDA could move on so-called “copycat” weight-loss drugs even sooner.
