New York, February 7, 2026, 15:54 (EST) — The market has closed.
- UnitedHealth (UNH) ended Friday’s session roughly 3% higher, finishing at $276.65.
- Molina’s bleak 2026 outlook rattled managed-care stocks, though Centene later provided a contrasting forecast.
- Next up: Humana reports on Feb. 11. After that, eyes turn to the Medicare Advantage rate decision landing April 6.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated bounced back Friday, climbing 3% to finish at $276.65. Shares had slipped after hours the previous day, but by the close, the stock found its footing. During the session, it ranged from $263.00 up to $277.74.
This shift is in sharp focus as investors puzzle over whether medical costs are genuinely easing or simply moving around between different insurers and plans. The medical loss ratio—a crucial gauge showing what portion of premiums goes to actual care—remains front and center. Unexpected swings in that number have hit the sector hard before.
UnitedHealth (UNH) finds itself right at the center, heavily tied to both Medicare Advantage and Medicaid. Medicare Advantage, offering a private-plan route instead of the classic Medicare, is an area where payment tweaks ripple through industry profits.
Molina Healthcare late Thursday projected at least $5 per share in adjusted earnings for 2026, a number that lands well below the $13.76 analysts were looking for. The company also plans to leave its traditional Medicare Advantage Part D business in 2027. CEO Joseph Zubretsky described 2026 as “a trough year for Medicaid industry margins.” UnitedHealth shares dropped over 3% after hours as the update sparked a sector-wide reaction. 1
Centene took a different tack Friday, projecting 2026 profit to top Wall Street’s forecasts, though its revenue guidance came up short of consensus. Baird’s Michael Ha noted Molina’s sizable miss may give investors pause. “Disciplined execution enabled us to close the year slightly ahead of the expectations,” Centene CEO Sarah London said. 2
UnitedHealth remains in the spotlight. For many traders, it’s the sector’s go-to bellwether stock. The question isn’t just about this quarter—investors are weighing if pricing will eventually match rising utilization in those government-backed plans.
The overhang from UnitedHealth’s earlier reset hasn’t gone away. Back on Jan. 27, the company posted 2025 revenue of $447.6 billion, then projected 2026 revenue above $439 billion with adjusted earnings topping $17.75 a share. 3
Washington remains a wild card. The Trump administration floated a 0.09% average increase for 2027 Medicare Advantage payment rates—far below what some had in mind. CMS is set to release its final rate notice on April 6. “People were ballparking this flat rate to be closer to 4 to 5%,” said Kevin Gade, chief operating officer at Bahl & Gaynor, which holds UnitedHealth shares. 4
Markets are closed until Monday, leaving earnings season to drive the next move. Humana reports fourth-quarter numbers on Feb. 11; what it says on Medicare Advantage pricing and medical utilization could influence managed-care stocks when trading picks back up. 5
Still, the numbers might swing against them. Should utilization remain elevated while reimbursement lags, insurers face some tough choices: trimming benefits, pulling plans from the market, or hiking prices—moves that could put membership on the line.
UnitedHealth shareholders are zeroed in on upcoming peer results and any whiff that cost trends could shift. Further out, eyes are on April 6, when the Medicare Advantage rate decision gets locked in — that’s the next key date circled on calendars.
