London, Feb 8, 2026, 07:50 GMT — Market is shut.
Glencore plc shares barely budged Friday, stabilizing after a volatile stretch sparked by Rio Tinto walking away from merger discussions. The stock (GLEN.L) finished at 478.10 pence, just 0.6% higher, having swung from 465.70 to 486.70 during the session. London’s market is closed Sunday, with trading set to resume Monday. 1
Investors are now left wondering about the fate of the takeover premium that had built up in the stock. Rio has put out a “no intention to bid” statement under Rule 2.8 of the UK Takeover Code, blocking it from making a fresh approach unless certain exceptions come into play. 2
In its statement, Glencore’s board argued the deal would have let Rio keep both the chair and CEO spots, while also falling short on valuing Glencore’s copper assets and growth prospects. “We concluded that the proposed acquisition on these terms is not in the best interests of Glencore shareholders,” the company said. 3
Rio pulled the plug, saying it couldn’t get to terms that would “deliver value to its shareholders”—scrapping plans for a merger that might have created a $200 billion mining behemoth. Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina isn’t ruling out revived talks, but he called that scenario “not our base case.” He also noted that a premium takeover would have been “the simplest and most elegant” way to push Glencore shares higher. 4
Several Rio shareholders saw the decision to pull back as a show of discipline, not a loss. Andy Forster, senior investment officer at Argo Investments, described it as “positive” that Rio seemed unwilling to pay too much. Atlas Funds Management CIO Hugh Dive pointed out miners’ “terrible long-term track record” with mega-mergers. 5
With the deal now scrapped, the focus turns to Glencore’s next moves—specifically, how it might independently refocus its assets and ramp up its copper business. According to a source familiar with the discussions, the company could ink a deal to sell its 70% stake in Kazzinc in a matter of weeks. Analysts peg the value of that stake at roughly $5 billion. “The next step may be to sell off assets individually,” said Iain Pyle, investment manager at Aberdeen. George Cheveley, who manages portfolios at Ninety One, added that Glencore still has room to “continue to tidy up” and unlock more value. 6
One big worry: with the corporate action story on hold, the stock may fall back into commodity-proxy territory. Copper and coal prices swing quickly, and if costs, volumes, or cash returns come in below expectations, the removal of the M&A bid-floor leaves the shares more exposed.
Glencore’s next major update lands Feb. 18, when it posts 2025 full-year results and holds a webcast at 08:30 UK time. On the docket: possible asset sales, capital return strategy, and just how aggressively management is pushing copper growth after Rio. 7
