TOKYO, Feb 9, 2026, 06:39 JST — Premarket
- MUFG finished Friday at 2,951.5 yen in Tokyo, a gain of 2.5%. Over in the U.S., shares wrapped up at $19.14, up 4.9%.
- After Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi clinched the election, the yen and Japanese government bond yields are in focus for traders.
- Banks are likely to take their cues from bond auctions and BOJ signals as the week gets underway.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group could see choppy action early this week, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s sweeping victory putting the so-called “Takaichi trade” back in play — traders are already sizing up prospects for stronger equities, softer bonds, and a weaker yen. “Good news for equities,” said Chris Scicluna, head of research at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe, ahead of the market open. MUFG shares finished Friday at 2,951.5 yen, a 2.5% gain; its U.S. ADRs ended at $19.14, up 4.9%. 1
Banks aren’t looking at a straightforward macro picture here. Higher bond yields might boost lending margins, sure, but they also saddle lenders with paper losses on bond portfolios accumulated back when rates were low.
The trade-off is front and center again as Japan’s bond market whipsaws on everything from political headlines to currency shifts, and questions around how fast the Bank of Japan pulls away from its easy stance. When yields at the long end jump, MUFG and rivals typically don’t wait to adjust.
MUFG and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group say they plan to boost their Japanese government bond (JGB) holdings with interest rates moving higher, despite seeing unrealised losses climb in their current JGB portfolios. “Cautiously rebuild,” is how MUFG managing director Takayuki Hara put it at a recent briefing, with MUFG projecting 200 billion yen in unrealised bond losses by the end of 2025. Simplex Asset Management’s Toshinobu Chiba pointed to the 10-year yield potentially hitting 2.5%—that’s his target level for stepping in. Over at Goldman Sachs, analyst Makoto Kuroda bumped up medium-term net profit forecasts, raising estimates for MUFG, SMFG, and Mizuho by 20%, 11%, and 21%. 2
Bank of Japan board member Kazuyuki Masu on Friday argued for “timely” interest rate hikes, noting that underlying inflation is nearly at the central bank’s 2% target. The BOJ raised its policy rate to 0.75% back in December. Now, markets put the odds of another increase in April at around 60%. Rinto Maruyama of SMBC Nikko Securities described Masu’s tone as “not overwhelmingly hawkish,” but said it underlines the BOJ’s determination to keep tightening. 3
MUFG faces a double-edged sword with the yen. Softer currency lifts overseas profits once converted, yet it stokes import-fueled inflation—and that might keep the BOJ sticking with its hawkish tilt.
The danger? The bond market might pull another January, moving with too much speed, overshooting. A sudden spike in yields could wipe out gains from higher loan rates, with mark-to-market losses piling up on bond books and risk appetite evaporating in a hurry.
Japan’s finance ministry is set to gauge appetite in the coming days, kicking off with a six-month Treasury discount bill auction on Feb. 9. The 10-year inflation-linked JGBs go under the hammer on Feb. 10, and a liquidity enhancement sale wraps things up on Feb. 13. For MUFG, these outcomes offer a first look at whether the post-election bond market stability is sticking. 4
