London, Feb 9, 2026, 11:49 GMT — Regular session
- Brent tacks on 0.3%, trading just below $68. War-risk premium has faded, though it’s still hanging around.
- WTI held just above $63 as India’s oil procurement stayed in the spotlight.
- Reports from OPEC, the U.S., and the IEA are lined up this week and have the potential to shift sentiment.
Oil prices found their footing Monday, with signals from both Washington and Tehran that indirect negotiations would continue. That move helped calm worries over an immediate supply crunch tied to Middle East tensions, even as traders watched India scale back on Russian crude. Brent crude edged up 17 cents to $68.22 a barrel by 1044 GMT, a 0.3% gain; U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 18 cents, also 0.3%, to $63.73. “The Iranian risk premium cannot be fully defused as long as U.S. warships are located where they are,” SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said. 1
Why does the shift matter? Oil’s been jumpy on geopolitics—whenever trouble flares in the Gulf, that’s still the fastest way to squeeze prompt supply. The Strait of Hormuz handles around a fifth of global oil consumption. Traders don’t hesitate to shell out for protection when the news takes a turn.
Despite oil’s stronger session on Monday, last week snapped a six-week winning streak. Brent slipped over 3%, while WTI gave up more than 2% across the week as tensions eased and equities retreated.
Russia remains unpredictable. The European Commission has rolled out plans for a broad ban targeting services that back Russia’s seaborne crude shipments, while Asian refinery buyers are adjusting. India is now playing a pivotal role in redirecting those flows.
Signs of India’s push to diversify are cropping up in oil purchases. Indian Oil Corp and Hindustan Petroleum snapped up 2 million barrels of Venezuela’s Merey crude from Trafigura, set for arrival in the April back half, according to two trade sources with direct knowledge. 2
The shuffle comes as the market, at least on paper, still looks loose. The International Energy Agency is projecting global output will top demand by 3.7 million barrels a day this year. Even so, Brent is staying above $65, and the curve’s in sharp backwardation—prompt barrels priced higher than those further out, a pattern usually tied to tighter supply. Morgan Stanley figures global crude stockpiles climbed by 520 million barrels in 2025 and could jump another 730 million this year. Analyst Martijn Rats notes that Chinese inventory builds are now being interpreted as a bullish sign for demand. Shipping costs aren’t helping either: “Freight is a meaningful regional differentiator this year,” said Keshav Lohiya, CEO at HiLo Analytics, as tanker rates to Asia shot up, sometimes pushing costs over $3 a barrel for refiners. 3
Still, that calm doesn’t always last. Progress in negotiations and a visible uptick in inventories? Risk premium bleeds out, prices slide. If talks falter or violence erupts, though, prompt barrels get snapped up again—fast.
OPEC’s February monthly oil market report lands Wednesday, Feb. 11, handing traders the latest read on global crude supply. 4
The Energy Information Administration has pegged Feb. 11 for its next Weekly Petroleum Status Report, so U.S. inventory figures are expected then. 5
The IEA plans to publish its latest Oil Market Report on Thursday, Feb. 12. 6
