LONDON, February 9, 2026, 11:53 (GMT) — Regular session
- Brent edged 0.3% higher to $68.22 a barrel as of 1044 GMT, while WTI also gained 0.3%, trading at $63.73.
- Brent’s getting pulled in two directions, caught between U.S.-Iran negotiations on one side and changes in how India’s buying on the other.
- Coming up: U.S. inventory figures and pushed-back payrolls—both set for Feb 11—followed by CPI on Feb 13.
Brent crude hovered just above $68 a barrel on Monday, holding steady after the U.S. and Iran decided to extend indirect talks—a move that calmed near-term supply jitters. Indian refiners pulling back from Russian seaborne crude has been lending support to prices as well. By 1044 GMT, Brent was up 17 cents at $68.22, a 0.3% gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 18 cents to $63.73, also up 0.3%. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop commented, “The Iranian risk premium cannot be fully defused as long as U.S. warships are located where they are.” 1
The risk premium’s significance comes down to the Strait of Hormuz itself—a critical, narrow corridor for worldwide energy movement. According to U.S. government data, daily oil shipments through the strait in 2024 averaged close to 20 million barrels. That’s about a fifth of the planet’s petroleum liquids demand. 2
Despite estimates signaling plenty of supply ahead this year, traders have fixated on geopolitical tensions and shipping snags. The International Energy Agency projects oil production will top demand by 3.7 million barrels a day by 2026. Still, Brent’s held above $65, and the forward curve is stuck in backwardation—near-term contracts fetching more than later ones, often seen when prompt supply looks tight. Shipping rates are stirring things up too. “Freight is a meaningful regional differentiator this year,” said Keshav Lohiya, CEO at HiLo Analytics. 3
Simply put, a risk premium is what traders shell out on top for the possibility that barrels might be held up or stuck. The markup can fade fast if headlines settle down, but it just as easily spikes back on one unexpected event.
Intraday swings tell the story. Brent dropped earlier, then reversed, with traders balancing diplomatic efforts against the stubborn risk of renewed retaliation if tensions flare up again.
Still, the downside risk hasn’t gone away. Should the Iran story stay calm and traders back off from pricing in the worst, attention could quickly shift to growing inventories and softening demand—factors that have a habit of dragging prices lower in a hurry.
U.S. inventory numbers will give the next clear read on demand, with the Energy Information Administration set to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report this Wednesday, February 11. 4
This week, macro data may rival supply headlines for traders’ attention. The much-anticipated, postponed January U.S. nonfarm payrolls lands Wednesday, February 11, with January’s CPI following Friday, February 13. Both figures have the potential to jolt the dollar, shake up rate bets, and send oil prices moving accordingly. 5
Brent prices are moving on headlines right now. Traders are hunting for updates on Iran talks, plus any hints about the pace at which buyers shift away from sanctioned crude.
