MILAN, Feb 9, 2026, 13:35 CET — Regular session
- UniCredit jumped roughly 6% in Milan, hovering close to its 52-week high.
- Profit targets are up, with the bank also promising heftier dividends and buybacks.
- Attention shifts now to its holdings in Commerzbank and Alpha, as well as shareholder votes scheduled for the end of March.
Shares of UniCredit (CRDI.MI) shot up 6.3% to 78.63 euros in Milan on Monday, just shy of their 52-week high of 79.00 euros. Investors were digesting updated profit goals and the bank’s latest pledge to return cash through dividends and buybacks. 1
Why it matters now: bank stocks are reacting to what’s next after the easy money stretch, with lending income losing steam. UniCredit’s playing it straight—meet the targets, keep capital sturdy, pay back cash.
It drops right into the ongoing European consolidation argument—cross-border deals look tidy on paper, but reality is another story. UniCredit’s move to build its stake keeps that issue live in the market.
UniCredit is targeting a profit of 11 billion euros this year, with plans for that figure to climb to 13 billion euros by 2028. The bank is banking on its stakes in Germany’s Commerzbank and Greece’s Alpha Bank, expecting those positions to boost net revenue by 1 billion euros by 2028. CEO Andrea Orcel, now holding 26% of Commerzbank and 29.8% of Alpha, described the Alpha tie-up as “strong” and said it “stays like that for now.” As for Commerzbank, he called it a potential deal “if and when conditions are right,” noting that Berlin had urged him to scale back. UniCredit reported net profit of 2.17 billion euros for the fourth quarter, which included 336 million euros in tax credits. The bank also announced plans to return 30 billion euros to investors across three years, and shares touched their highest levels since 2009. 2
Shares of UniCredit surged, lifting Italian stocks and putting euro zone banks at the front of the pack, while the rest of Europe’s markets held steady. “There’s no euphoria in this rally,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Markets. 3
Analysts zeroed in on the company’s expenses and chased down what drove the capital-return buzz. That larger buyback means something only if the cash actually shows up, right on time, and regulators don’t toss in another twist.
Things have gotten tense between UniCredit and Amundi. The fund manager supplies a hefty chunk of the products UniCredit moves through its branches, but that relationship is under strain. Their distribution deal sticks around until mid-2027. Orcel told reporters the bank has already set aside provisions to cover the penalties it racks up as it shifts clients’ cash into its own Onemarkets funds and other alternatives. “Every time we do that we pay them a penalty,” he said. 4
Orcel shot down speculation about a broader deal with insurer Generali, following reports that the two CEOs had met. “There is nothing else on that topic,” he told analysts, describing Generali simply as an industrial partner in bancassurance and asset management distribution. 5
Still, there’s not much margin for error in this rally. Lower lending margins, hedging expenses, or unexpected charges could all hit results, and if political pushback over Commerzbank returns, upside could be limited—or the whole story might end up back in the news cycle.
UniCredit rolled out its “UniCredit Unlimited” strategy, projecting 2025 net profit at 10.6 billion euros—10.9 billion euros on a stated basis. By year-end, the CET1 capital ratio stood at 14.7%. The bank is targeting roughly 50 billion euros in total distributions across five years. For 2026, the shareholder meeting lands on March 31, with the final dividend scheduled to go ex-dividend April 20 and payment lined up for April 22, pending approvals. 6
