NEW YORK, Feb 9, 2026, 16:07 (ET) — Trading past the bell.
Microsoft (MSFT.O) closed Monday at $413.68, up 3.1%. The stock bounced from $400.99 to $414.89 during the session. With that, the company’s market value landed around $3.59 trillion.
Microsoft’s rebound is significant. The stock lands right in the middle of two live debates: Will the huge outlays for AI infrastructure actually deliver, and can software companies hold the line on prices as AI tools keep improving?
It’s happening during a tough stretch for software stocks, with investors working to gauge how quickly the sector could be upended. Microsoft’s cloud trajectory and its spending outlook have effectively become a stand-in for the broader trade.
U.S. stocks found their footing following last week’s rout in tech, with software stocks snapping back—Oracle rose after an analyst upgrade. “You’ve a sharply oversold market where a little bit of good news can go a long way,” said Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, reacting after CNBC cited remarks it attributed to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman; Reuters was unable to independently confirm the report. 1
ChatGPT’s monthly growth is once again topping 10%, Altman told staffers, according to an internal note seen by CNBC. Reuters said it couldn’t independently confirm the report, and OpenAI didn’t immediately comment. CNBC’s note, as cited by Reuters, also put OpenAI’s weekly active user count at over 800 million and said the company is gearing up to roll out a refreshed chat model this week. 2
Jefferies’ Brent Thill is sticking with his bullish call on Microsoft, telling clients the recent pullback in software stocks represents a buying opportunity. Thill reiterated his Buy rating and a $675 price target, according to Barron’s. 3
Jefferies, in a separate note, pushed back against predictions that AI is about to wipe out the software sector, calling such calls “premature” and flagging that “the negative sentiment is reaching extreme levels.” The analysts highlighted growing anxiety over “vibe coding”—the idea of creating software just by prompting AI—but made the case that the incumbents with control over data and distribution are still in the driver’s seat. 4
Plenty of caution still out there. Last week, Stifel’s Brad Reback lowered his rating on Microsoft to Hold from Buy, saying it was “time for a break.” He trimmed his price target sharply, down to $392 from $540. Reback pointed to Azure supply issues, higher costs, and intensifying competition in AI as reasons for the move. 5
Microsoft’s numbers rattled nerves. Capital spending surged to $37.5 billion for the October-December stretch, nearly 66% higher than last year. Azure’s revenue climbed 39%, just barely beating forecasts. Executives flagged tight capacity and rising chip costs as potential drags on cloud margins. 6
Choppy conditions persist. Reuters’ “Week Ahead” column noted the software and services index dropped roughly 15% in just over a week, highlighting what Edward Jones strategist Angelo Kourkafas called this year’s “dominant theme”: rotation out of tech. That same piece pointed out the postponed January jobs report lands Wednesday, with the consumer price index — the closely watched inflation metric — following on Friday. 7
Still, a single day’s bounce hardly ends the debate. Hot inflation numbers or a jobs surprise could push bond yields higher, putting pressure on expensive tech names. And if Microsoft’s AI outlays keep outpacing its cloud growth, margin concerns would almost certainly resurface.
With Microsoft, traders are zeroed in on updates around Azure capacity and looking for signs that Copilot adoption is boosting revenue, not just usage figures. Eyes are also on Friday’s U.S. January CPI report, due Feb. 13.
