New York, Feb 9, 2026, 18:11 EST — After-hours
- UnitedHealth slipped roughly 0.3% in late after-hours trading.
- Healthcare shares in the U.S. trailed the broader rally on Wall Street this Monday.
- Investors are watching Medicare Advantage reimbursement and cost trends as the next policy milestones approach.
UnitedHealth Group Inc dipped 0.3% to $275.70 in post-market trade Monday. The stock moved between $273.88 and $280.15 earlier in the day, with more than 10 million shares changing hands.
The drop hit a soft spot in the market. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed up, though healthcare slid 0.86% with investors pivoting back to tech and eyeing new U.S. economic data expected this week. 1
Even the slightest shift for UnitedHealth tends to be seen as a policy risk barometer. Late last month, the company projected a rare revenue decline for 2026—its first in decades—after the government’s near-flat proposal for 2027 Medicare Advantage rates. CEO Steve Hemsley called the company’s momentum “palpable” on the earnings call. But UnitedHealthcare chief Tim Noel didn’t sugarcoat the outlook: “We will need very meaningful benefit reductions,” he warned, pointing directly to the new rate math. 2
Analysts aren’t sugarcoating the outlook if Washington holds firm. “Simply put, the potential rates compared to the cost trend will likely be insufficient,” Baird’s Michael Ha wrote, weighing in on the latest proposal. Bernstein’s Lance Wilkes also warned that “membership growth will remain low” should health plans be forced to trim benefits and narrow provider networks. Leerink’s Whit Mayo called the rate update “well below expectations.” Medicare Advantage rates usually get finalized in early April. 3
Monday saw a split among rivals. Managed care names stayed under pressure—Humana slid 2.3%, CVS Health sank 3.3%. Cigna, though, managed to pick up roughly 0.8%.
Medicare Advantage, the alternative to traditional Medicare for seniors and some disabled people, relies on private insurance. A modest payment boost from the government often puts pressure on insurers; higher claims may leave them cutting back on extra perks or even exiting parts of the market. This time, regulators also flagged adjustments to how payment gets calculated based on diagnosis coding—an area that’s already under the microscope for the whole sector. 4
UnitedHealth is working to shift the conversation to its execution and cost management. In its Jan. 27 update, the company posted 2025 revenue of $447.6 billion, putting its 2026 target above $439.0 billion. Adjusted earnings guidance is set at over $17.75 per share. For 2025, UnitedHealth projects a reported medical care ratio at 89.1%—or 88.9% adjusted—measuring the portion of premiums going to medical care. The company also disclosed a $1.6 billion after-tax charge in the fourth quarter, citing costs tied to a cyberattack, divestitures, and restructuring. 5
Monday left that debate unresolved. The stock’s movement suggests it’s back in the policy-sensitive bucket, reacting more to cues from Washington and cost signals than anything tied to new products or provider chatter.
Here’s the risk: Should April’s final Medicare Advantage rates land near the draft and medical costs refuse to cool, the industry’s answer might be slashing benefits, tightening networks, or easing off growth markets. That’s the downside traders can’t shake.
On Tuesday, the focus turns to healthcare stocks, which have been trailing even as the rest of the market stays resilient. The crucial date, though, is early April: that’s when Medicare Advantage rates get finalized, potentially upending earnings forecasts for UnitedHealth and similar players.
