Sydney, Feb 10, 2026, 17:22 AEDT — After-hours
- Suncorp shares fell more than 4% as AI-driven disruption fears rippled through insurers and brokers
- Morningstar’s Nathan Zaia said new ChatGPT-powered apps “caused the sell-off”
- Investors now look to Suncorp’s Feb. 18 half-year results for claims, pricing and outlook signals
Suncorp Group Ltd shares closed down 4.24% at A$16.05 on Tuesday, as investors sold Australian insurer and broker stocks on worries that new ChatGPT-based insurance shopping tools could chip away at the role of intermediaries. 1
The concern is not just about a single product launch. It is about distribution — who controls the customer, who owns the data, and whether price comparison becomes even more of a race to the bottom in personal and small business cover.
That anxiety hit brokers first and then rolled into insurers, even though underwriting profits still hinge on pricing discipline, claims trends and reinsurance — the cover insurers buy to limit losses from big events.
Morningstar analyst Nathan Zaia said “definitely” the new ChatGPT apps “have caused the sell-off,” while adding it was “a bit early” to assume the tools would mean a material loss of business for brokers. Jarden analysts, in a note cited by insuranceNEWS.com.au, flagged retail broking as the more exposed end of the market because products are more standardised and buying decisions can skew to price and convenience. 2
Insurance Australia Group closed at 7.280 Australian dollars, down 6.19%, while QBE Insurance Group fell 3.39% to 19.690 Australian dollars. 3
The broader market was steadier. The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.03% to finish at 8,867.4 points, after trading higher earlier in the session. 4
For Suncorp, the next hard catalyst is earnings — and the numbers are already framed by a heavy weather bill. In a Jan. 12 update, the company said first-half natural hazard costs were expected to total A$1.319 billion versus a first-half allowance of A$866 million, part of a full-year allowance of A$1.770 billion. It also said the retention — what Suncorp pays before reinsurance responds — for the next large Australian event was estimated at A$260 million, and flagged roughly A$250 million of first-half net investment income. Suncorp CEO Steve Johnston warned at the time that “bushfire risk remains high” and said the group was monitoring conditions from its disaster management centre in Brisbane. 5
Natural hazard costs are the insurer’s running tally of claims from events such as storms, floods and bushfires. Reinsurance retention matters because it sets how quickly another big event can start biting into earnings again.
The risk for investors is that the AI shock fades as quickly as it arrived — or it doesn’t. If shoppers still want advice, or regulators and insurers slow the path from chat to binding a policy, the pressure on brokers could prove smaller than the first tape implied. But if the tools do shift volumes, insurers may face another fight over acquisition costs and pricing power.
Suncorp is due to report half-year results on Feb. 18. Investors will be listening for how management talks about claims momentum, premium pricing, investment income and whether distribution changes are starting to show up in the numbers. 6
Before the next session, traders will be watching for follow-through in broker stocks, any fresh detail from the app developers, and whether the insurer sell-off broadens beyond the names hit hardest on Tuesday.
