New York, February 10, 2026, 11:26 EST — Regular session
- UnitedHealth shares edged up in late-morning trading, a slight gain following a tough run triggered by policy concerns.
- Health insurers are once again facing Washington’s microscope on Medicare and Obamacare markets.
- Next up, investors are eyeing government deadlines tied to 2027 reimbursement math, watching for moves that could shift the numbers.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) edged up roughly 0.8% to $278.04 on Tuesday, trading close to the session’s highs after a shaky start. Shares moved between $275.13 and $279.40, with about 2.4 million changing hands.
Medicare Advantage remains the primary force here — these are private plans for seniors, funded by federal dollars. The CMS’s 2027 “Advance Notice” pegs the net average payment bump at just 0.09%. Comments are due by Feb. 25, with the final update expected on or before April 6. 1
Policy pressure ramped up Tuesday as House Judiciary Committee Republicans hit eight Affordable Care Act insurers with subpoenas, seeking records tied to a probe of suspected fraud involving subsidies, Axios reported via Reuters. UnitedHealth didn’t make the list. The insurers must respond by Feb. 23. Centene, for its part, said it’s cooperating with the “goal of fighting fraud.” 2
The administration rolled out fresh Obamacare rules for 2027 just a day ago, aiming to bring back and broaden catastrophic plans—think cheaper premiums, steeper deductibles. CMS positioned the move as a push to “expand choice and support affordability,” plus the agency is looking to put stricter controls on brokers and agents. Reuters noted the draft rule is up for public feedback until March 11. 3
Managed care names went their own ways. Elevance added close to 1.0%, CVS tacked on 0.8%. On the flip side, Humana ended down 0.3%, Cigna dropped 1.3%. Broader equities barely budged as December retail sales landed flat; an Allianz Investment Management exec pointed to the data as “driving some of the weakness.” 4
Medicare Advantage numbers are still the sticking point for the sector. The government rolled out its 2027 proposal at the end of last month, and reaction was swift: Baird’s Michael Ha flagged it as “will likely be insufficient.” Bernstein’s Lance Wilkes warned that insurers might have to “cut benefits and tighten networks” unless rates budge. The update “falls well below expectations,” Leerink’s Whit Mayo said. 5
UnitedHealth has warned that 2026 might not play out smoothly for investors. CEO Steve Hemsley claimed “Momentum inside this organization is palpable,” yet the company is projecting 2026 revenue just over $439 billion—a drop, and the first since 1989. UnitedHealthcare chief Tim Noel flagged the rate proposal, calling for “very meaningful benefit reductions.” Morningstar’s Julie Utterback cautioned that shareholders may have to “wait longer than hoped,” and a Novare Capital Management exec said the plan “starts to bring in worries” for 2027 growth. 6
The downside risk hasn’t gone away: ramped-up scrutiny over how insurers bill and code for Medicare could add pressure just as rates come up for debate. Back in January, a Senate committee report accused UnitedHealth of using risk-adjustment coding aggressively — the system increases payouts when patients are marked as sicker — describing it as a “major profit centered strategy.” UnitedHealth pushed back, saying it disagreed with those findings and that its programs “comply with” government requirements. 7
Investors are eyeing a cluster of key dates rather than waiting on any product rollout: Feb. 23 marks the deadline for House subpoena responses, Feb. 25 brings the close for Medicare Advantage methodology comments, and — crucially — the CMS final rate is expected by April 6. That announcement lands as the next definitive spark in the UNH 2027 margin discussion.
