New York, February 10, 2026, 4:01 PM EST — After-hours
- Micron shares dropped after reports reignited concerns over the company’s ability to provide early HBM4 supply for Nvidia’s upcoming “Vera Rubin” AI platform.
- SemiAnalysis has slashed Micron’s expected HBM4 share for Rubin to zero, South Korean media reported, citing higher speed requirements as the main hurdle.
- Deutsche Bank described DRAM supply as “unprecedentedly” tight and noted robust HBM demand, both positives for Micron—still, shares slipped.
Micron Technology, Inc. slid $9.09, or 2.4%, to $374.41 late Tuesday, deepening a recent drop tied to renewed concerns about its future role in Nvidia’s next wave of AI hardware.
Why does it matter? High-bandwidth memory, or HBM—think stacked DRAM built to keep AI chips fed with data—now sits at the center of the memory makers’ growth narrative. The transition to HBM4 is next. When supplier chatter shifts, sentiment can react almost instantly.
Micron’s seen by traders as a gauge for AI server demand and the state of memory supply. Questions over its HBM4 share aren’t about the next quarter—they have potential to reshape how investors look at margins and pricing leverage.
ChosunBiz out of South Korea said semiconductor analyst firm SemiAnalysis has slashed Micron’s HBM4 share for Nvidia’s “Vera Rubin” project to zero. “There are no signs Nvidia will order Micron’s HBM4,” the firm said. For the Rubin platform, the outlet says supply now breaks down to roughly 70% for SK hynix, 30% for Samsung Electronics. Nvidia, meanwhile, has bumped up its HBM4 speed goal to at least 11 gigabits per second—that’s the rate at which the chip can push data. 1
Samsung looks set to start shipping HBM4 as soon as the third week of February, after getting the green light from Nvidia’s quality tests, according to TrendForce, which referenced reports from Yonhap News and Hankyung. Industry sources told Hankyung that Nvidia’s initial HBM4 allocation for late 2025 breaks down to SK hynix getting a mid-50% share, Samsung landing in the mid-20% range, and Micron taking about 20%. Samsung’s HBM4 is quoted by TrendForce at speeds up to 11.7 Gbps, notably higher than the 8 Gbps baseline set by JEDEC. 2
Selling pressure hit chip stocks, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF slipping 0.3%. Nvidia shed around 0.5%. The Invesco QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, dropped 0.3%, and SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, edged down 0.1%.
Still, certain bulls held onto their long-term thesis. Deutsche Bank’s Melissa Weathers—quoted by Nasdaq.com—described the DRAM supply shortage as “unprecedented” and highlighted robust demand for both DRAM and HBM as clear positives for MU. She applied a $500 valuation framework, linked to the company’s earnings power. 3
The flip side isn’t hard to spot: Should Samsung and SK hynix accelerate production, and if buyers throw more orders at the initial HBM4 suppliers, Micron’s share could end up lighter than what the Street is penciling in. Add more competitor capacity just as demand softens, and memory prices can tumble—classic memory cycle dynamics at work.
Micron’s top brass will be on stage Wednesday at 8:50 a.m. EST for Wolfe Research’s Auto, Auto Tech and Semiconductor Conference, with investors watching for news on HBM4 qualification, supply deals, or the state of customer demand. 4
