New York, February 10, 2026, 17:25 EST — Trading in the after-hours session.
JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) dropped 1.2% to $318.28 during Tuesday’s session. After hours, shares barely budged. The day’s range stretched from $315.19 up to $326.07, with volume landing near 9.9 million shares.
Stocks wobbled after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed in the red, with December’s U.S. retail sales figures coming in flat—so Americans pulled back on pricier goods. Traders were also looking ahead to Wednesday’s postponed January nonfarm payrolls release. Rate-cut speculation picked up, too: CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a 36.9% chance for a cut in April, as investors tried to gauge how the labor data could shift the Fed’s outlook. “Nobody wants to get too far above their risk budget in the event the number does cause some consternation,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. 1
The mix is key for JPMorgan. The stock usually rides two factors: where rates land, and if corporate deal activity keeps gaining. Net interest income—essentially a bank’s loan earnings minus deposit costs—can shift fast when expectations move.
Bank of America dropped roughly 1.8% by the close. Wells Fargo shed about 2.8%, while Citigroup slipped around 1.4%.
Speaking at the UBS financial services conference in Florida, JPMorgan’s Troy Rohrbaugh sounded upbeat on the dealmaking outlook. “The pipelines continuing through the end of ’25 into ’26 look excellent,” he said, putting M&A prospects in “that top decile.” Rohrbaugh also pointed to a “very robust IPO pipeline,” though he was clear the market shouldn’t expect help from SPACs — the shell companies that go public to buy private firms. 2
JPMorgan’s shares, though, tend to ride on more than just sentiment — think fees from advisory, underwriting, and leveraged finance when clients finally pull the trigger. But these businesses can go silent for stretches, only to light up suddenly with a few big deals.
Macro came first on Tuesday, banks took a back seat. One unexpected data point, and conference chatter gets shoved aside—at least for now.
No long wait for the next data drop. The Labor Department plans to put out its January Employment Situation report on Feb. 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Then, two days later—Feb. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET—comes the Consumer Price Index for January, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule. 3
Still, the story could shift quickly. A strong jobs number might shake up rate-cut wagers and put heat on lenders banking on policy relief. On the flip side, soft data brings its own headache: questions about loan demand and credit quality.
JPMorgan investors are eyeing whether fresh data upends rate expectations before week’s end — and if all the talk of an “excellent” pipeline actually materializes into new deals.
