London, Feb 11, 2026, 17:42 GMT — Regular session
- Brent jumped close to 2%, trading around $70. WTI climbed as well.
- U.S. crude inventories climbed by 8.5 million barrels last week, according to EIA data.
- Traders are watching for the IEA’s upcoming oil market report on Feb. 12, with OPEC+ production discussions set for March 1.
Brent crude futures climbed almost 2% on Wednesday, slipping back toward $70 a barrel as fresh U.S.-Iran tensions took precedence over a notable jump in U.S. crude inventories. Brent added $1.22, or 1.77%, to reach $70.02 by 1647 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude moved up $1.21, or 1.89%, to $65.17. 1
The market is wrestling with what’s driving prices at this point—physical barrels moving or fresh headlines from the Gulf. A stretch of quiet trading can erase the risk premium in a hurry. Then, a day like this, and it snaps right back.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday floated the idea of deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if talks with Iran fail to produce an agreement, even as both sides readied for negotiations. “No signs, at least for now, of escalation,” wrote Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo pointed out that “no supply disruption so far” has occurred. 2
Oil found some footing on talk that Washington might crack down harder on tankers carrying Iranian crude—heightening worries about possible reprisals near crucial shipping lanes. Traders have been quick to react to anything touching the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries a hefty chunk of global seaborne oil. 3
On the supply side, fresh weekly numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicate the domestic crude market remains well supplied. For the week ending Feb. 6, commercial crude stocks (excluding the SPR) climbed by 8.5 million barrels, reaching 428.8 million. Gasoline added 1.2 million barrels. Distillate inventories moved the other way, dropping by 2.7 million barrels.
Traders went into the session expecting yet another build in inventories—just not one of this size. That headline number managed to keep the rally in check, even as stocks climbed. “Oil retains a bullish tail-risk bid,” LSEG analysts said. Vortexa’s Xavier Tang highlighted stronger demand out of India, while ANZ analysts noted that second-carrier reports have pushed some risk premium back into prices. 4
OPEC has given the market updated figures on the ongoing supply tug-of-war. In its latest monthly release, the cartel projected that demand for OPEC+ crude will slip by 400,000 barrels a day during the second quarter, hitting 42.20 million bpd. Eight OPEC+ states are scheduled to gather on March 1 to weigh whether to green-light more production in April. (OPEC+ groups OPEC with Russia and a handful of additional partners.) 5
OPEC pointed to a softer dollar boosting demand, as oil priced in greenbacks gets less expensive for buyers holding other currencies. According to the report, the group’s output slipped to 42.45 million bpd in January, a 439,000 bpd decrease from December. Kazakhstan accounted for the largest share of that decline. 5
Oil traders are watching for the International Energy Agency’s monthly Oil Market Report on Feb. 12—a release known to jolt forecasts for supply-demand balances and inventories ahead of the next quarter. 6
Brent prices clawed back some ground Wednesday, rebounding from Tuesday’s closing level. The ICE Brent contract wrapped up Feb. 10 at $68.80 per barrel, following a volatile stretch that kept traders whipsawed around the $70 mark. 7
The downside’s clear enough. Should U.S.-Iran talks calm down, or if supply keeps moving without hiccups, then what’s left is a market looking at rising U.S. stockpiles and OPEC+ still locked in talks about the timing for bringing more barrels online.
Eyes turn to Thursday’s IEA report, while the market also waits for the U.S. EIA’s weekly petroleum numbers due Feb. 19 and a firm schedule for renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations. 8
