London, Feb 12, 2026, 17:32 GMT — Regular session
- Brent crude dropped over $1 a barrel on the day, following the IEA’s move to trim its demand-growth outlook for 2026.
- U.S. crude stocks logged a hefty weekly increase, piling on the pressure.
- OPEC+ supply moves are now in the spotlight, with traders also eyeing the next demand signal.
Brent crude dropped $1.26, or 1.82%, settling at $68.14 a barrel by 1616 GMT on Thursday. The International Energy Agency’s reduction of its 2026 demand-growth outlook took center stage, pulling focus away from the Middle East supply concerns that had lifted prices earlier. U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped $1.24, or 1.92%, to $63.39. “It just ran out of steam,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. 1
The IEA now expects global oil demand to climb by 850,000 barrels per day in 2026, but still projects that supply will overshoot demand by roughly 3.73 million bpd—a surplus approaching 4% of global use. For traders, barrels per day is the key speedometer for changes in balance. The IEA’s adjustment has sharpened concerns that inventories could swell, even if certain barrels remain off the market. 2
Just a day earlier, Brent crude for April delivery had closed 60 cents higher at $69.40 on the London ICE Futures Exchange. 3
U.S. fundamentals offered little support. According to the Energy Information Administration, commercial crude inventories—excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—climbed by 8.5 million barrels for the week ending Feb. 6, reaching 428.8 million barrels. Refineries operated at 89.4% capacity.
Crude inventories surged past what analysts were expecting, a wider-than-forecast build that usually pressures prompt prices—suggesting refiners and exporters are dialing back near-term demand. 4
Earlier this week, traders zeroed in on geopolitical developments, waiting for something decisive from both diplomacy and the data front. Gelber & Associates analysts noted that the market hesitated to move prices “either direction” without solid proof of supply disruptions. Tamas Varga at PVM echoed that warning—unless there are “concrete signs” of actual disruption, he said, prices could just slip lower. 5
But another view is making the rounds: even if headline data suggests plenty of oil, sanctions and trade disputes are squeezing the actual physical market. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy flagged that “cracks are beginning to appear” as geopolitical tensions weigh on supply—traditional customers for Russian and Iranian crude are now seeking barrels from Western producers or Saudi Arabia. 6
But OPEC’s own data tell a different story. The group, sticking with its 1.38 million bpd global demand-growth estimate for this year, projected a 400,000 bpd drop in OPEC+ crude demand for the second quarter from the first. If production stays steady, OPEC flagged a modest surplus for Q2—just as a major policy decision looms. 7
U.S. analysts are flagging a more robust supply picture down the line. The EIA projects that petroleum and other liquids output will continue outpacing consumption, which means global inventories should climb. Brent is seen averaging $69 a barrel in 2025, before slipping to $58 in 2026, according to the agency. 8
The road ahead isn’t straightforward. Should demand cool off more than the IEA projects—or if U.S. inventories keep piling up at this clip—Brent could push down to test support levels in short order. On the flip side, any disruption tied to Iranian shipping lanes, or a sudden shift in OPEC+ strategy, could send prices surging.
All eyes now shift to March 1, when eight OPEC+ members meet to decide if April will see a return to output hikes. Meanwhile, positioning remains on edge, with traders closely tracking upcoming U.S. inventory numbers and any shifts in the Iran-U.S. dynamic. 9
