NEW YORK, Feb 16, 2026, 04:46 EST — Market closed.
- No trading on Monday with U.S. markets shut for Presidents Day. Still, it’s a busy, compressed stretch ahead—investors bracing for a full slate of economic data plus the latest round of quarterly 13F filings.
- Stock futures ticked higher late Sunday, following a rough week that saw megacap tech stocks take a hit and traders weighing just how deep this selloff might go.
- Headline inflation in January slipped to 2.4% year-on-year, according to Friday’s CPI, while core inflation landed at 2.5%.
Big tech stocks have taken a hit this year, with investors uneasy about whether AI investments will actually pay off. Microsoft shares have slid roughly 17% since January, Amazon is off almost 14%. That drop has erased around $956 billion from their total market value by Friday’s close, according to .
It’s not only the cost of AI that’s raising eyebrows—the speed of development is just as dizzying. On Monday, Alibaba rolled out its Qwen3.5 model, touting it as a cheaper upgrade that operates across both mobile and desktop apps. ByteDance and DeepSeek are also rolling out fresh tools in this space.
Coming up, the market turns its focus back to the basics: rates, growth, and spending by U.S. consumers. The Fed’s minutes from its Jan. 27-28 meeting land at 2 p.m. EST on Feb. 18. Walmart will report Thursday. Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST, the government drops its advance read on Q4 GDP, along with December’s personal income and outlays—PCE price index included.
Stocks ended the last session mixed. The S&P 500 edged up just 0.05% to wrap at 6,836.17, and the Dow added 0.10% to close at 49,500.93. The Nasdaq slipped 0.22% to 22,546.67, weighed down by weakness in tech and communications services. All three benchmarks still finished the week lower.
Consumer prices in January edged up 0.2% from the previous month, with annual inflation slowing to 2.4%. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, landed at 2.5%, according to Friday’s data. “It doesn’t really show a lot of urgency for the Fed to step on the gas,” Edward Jones deputy chief economist James McCann said. Reuters
Following the release, rate futures took a slightly dovish turn. Traders are now betting on around a 70% probability the Fed moves to cut rates come June; markets are also pointing to about 64 basis points of easing for 2026—remember, that’s 0.01 percentage point per basis point. Holding steady in March still looks like the default scenario.
This week, Walmart stands in the spotlight as a consumer gauge, with its outlook drawing investor attention to the state of household demand. Earlier in the month, the retailer’s market value hit $1 trillion, Reuters noted, turning up the heat on new chief executive John Furner as Walmart doubles down on delivery, advertising, and AI tech.
Chip equipment names caught a late-week tailwind. Applied Materials surged 11% Friday after projecting second-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street’s targets. CEO Gary Dickerson credited “the acceleration of industry investments in AI computing.” Morningstar’s William Kerwin is looking for “a massive wafer fabrication equipment growth cycle” stretching out over the next three years. Reuters
Asia’s Monday session saw overseas markets turning in a mixed performance, as most of China stayed quiet for Lunar New Year. Early U.S. stock futures nudged higher—S&P 500 and Dow contracts both up roughly 0.2%, according to AP.
Gold slipped 0.2% to $5,007.70 an ounce in light holiday trading, according to Reuters. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo flagged that while the CPI report might look dovish, “this doesn’t mean the Fed will cut in March as services inflation is still too high.” Reuters
Still, rates and risk sentiment could shift quickly depending on how the week’s numbers shake out—Friday’s PCE or the GDP release could easily light a fire under bond yields if they surprise to the upside. Barclays is looking for December’s headline and core PCE inflation to climb 0.4%, according to Kiplinger.
Trading picks up again Tuesday. Looking ahead, investors are zeroing in on two dates: Fed minutes drop Feb. 18, then the GDP and personal income/outlays data follow Feb. 20. That income release brings the PCE price index—a focal point for inflation watchers this week.
