London, February 17, 2026, 09:27 GMT — Regular session
- Shares in Antofagasta (ANTO.L) slipped 3.4% as of 0820 GMT following full-year results. This came even as the miner posted a record core profit.
- The copper miner bumped its final dividend up to 48 U.S. cents per share, while 2026 output guidance stays where it was.
- Peak capex, a climb in net debt, and the risk of missing key project deliveries—investors have all three in the balance right now.
Antofagasta shares dropped 3.4% as of 0820 GMT on Tuesday, despite the copper miner’s record annual core profit. Investors focused instead on the firm’s rising debt and a sizable investment load. The stock still shows a 10.5% gain for the year, according to Reuters. CEO Iván Arriagada said construction work at Centinela’s second concentrator has reached about 70% completion. (Reuters)
Timing is key here. Copper miners just wrapped up a year marked by record prices, but investors are now pushing for cash payouts, even as companies stick with ambitious growth projects that stretch over years and demand billions in investment.
Antofagasta finds itself at the heart of that debate. The company leans heavily toward copper—one of the few in the sector where supply headlines can spark sharp price moves. Its project pipeline plugs directly into cost and volume expectations for 2026–2027.
The company posted a 30% jump in revenue to $8.62 billion for 2025, with EBITDA surging 52% to $5.20 billion. Copper output edged down 2% to 653,700 tonnes, but the average price fetched for copper climbed 18% to $4.93 per pound. The board is recommending a final dividend of 48 U.S. cents per share, which brings the total payout for the year to 64.6 cents. Arriagada, in the results statement, cited “demand driven by the global structural trends of energy security and electrification” and said key projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres are “on time and on budget.” (Investegate)
The payout works out to a 50% payout ratio, matching the company’s policy floor of at least 35% of underlying earnings returned to shareholders.
Costs are also in the spotlight. Antofagasta pegged its 2025 cash costs before by-product credits at $2.38 per pound, with net cash costs landing at $1.19. Those by-product credits, coming from metals like gold and molybdenum, help chip away at the headline copper production costs.
The company stuck to its 2026 copper production forecast, still aiming for 650,000 to 700,000 tonnes. Cash costs, before factoring in by-product credits, are set at $2.30–$2.50 per pound. Net cash costs land between $1.15 and $1.35 per pound.
Capital expenditure hit a high of $3.7 billion in 2025. That’s now seen falling to $3.4 billion this year, a sign the group has moved past the peak of construction outlays tied to its current build programme.
Net debt finished 2025 around $2.75 billion, rising from roughly $1.63 billion the year before. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio clocked in at 0.53. Cash, cash equivalents and liquid investments totaled about $4.9 billion, the company said.
The stock reaction on Tuesday pointed to investors accepting the profit, but questioning how that turns into free cash flow. Output ticks down in 2025. The balance sheet is under more strain now, with major projects burning through cash at their priciest stage.
Still, fortunes can reverse fast. If costs climb, operations stumble, or schedules slip at the mines, that could spell trouble for a balance sheet already seeing net debt tick up. And copper? Prices tend to swerve away from consensus, often right as miners ramp up spending.
Now, attention turns to what executives say during the results call and whether first quarter guidance stays intact. According to the company’s calendar, the Q1 2026 production report lands April 15, offering up the next look at output, expenses, and how projects are tracking. (antofagasta.co.uk)
