London, Feb 18, 2026, 09:05 GMT — Regular session
National Grid (NG.L) shares slipped in early trade on Wednesday, down about 0.5% at 1,369 pence by 0905 GMT. They closed at 1,376.5 pence on Tuesday and traded between roughly 1,363 and 1,376 on the day.
The stock moved as investors recalibrated Bank of England rate expectations after fresh UK inflation data. National Grid runs electricity transmission and distribution networks in Britain and electricity and gas networks in the northeastern United States.
That matters now because utilities often trade like long-dated bonds: when yields fall, their dividends look less lonely. When yields rise, that support thins out.
Consumer price inflation (CPI) rose 3.0% in the year to January, down from 3.4% in December and the lowest since March 2025. Core CPI eased to 3.1% and services inflation edged down to 4.4%, with transport and food among the biggest drags on the annual rate.
Rate futures — derivatives that reflect where traders see policy rates going — also shifted. Contracts put an almost 80% chance on a March rate cut, with another reduction priced later in 2026. “The MPC will still have to be cautious this year, even as headline inflation drops,” said Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK. Reuters
A Reuters poll on Monday found more than 60% of economists, 41 of 63, expecting the BoE to cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points, or a quarter percentage point, in March to 3.50%. “We stick to our call for the next Bank Rate cut to come in March,” said Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank. Reuters
But the path is messy. If services inflation stays sticky or wage numbers reheat, rate-cut odds could flip and dividend-heavy names can get hit.
Beyond macro, National Grid has its own dates on the calendar. The company is due to publish full-year results on May 14, with final-dividend milestones starting on May 28 and the payment set for July 23.
Until then, investors will watch gilts and credit spreads for clues on funding costs and risk appetite. Regulatory moves on allowed returns can matter more than a day of CPI noise.
The nearer-term trigger is the BoE decision on March 19, when it will announce Bank Rate and publish minutes.
