London, March 2, 2026, 18:35 GMT — Regular session
- Brent jumps $4.83, a 6.6% surge; WTI not far behind, adding 6.2% as supply risks escalate
- Shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz are seeing less tanker movement, with war-risk cover policies set to be canceled on March 5.
- OPEC+ is pointing to a small output increase for April, though the group warns it may hit pause if market conditions shift.
Brent crude jumped $4.83, gaining 6.6% to reach $77.70 a barrel by 1835 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate added $4.17, up 6.2%, at $71.19, per Investing.com data.
Traders are zeroed in on the Strait of Hormuz, now seen as the main flashpoint. After several tankers were struck and Iran declared the channel shut to navigation, roughly 150 ships are sitting idle in and near the strait, based on shipping data. The passage, which handles about 20% of the world’s oil, has largely stalled. From March 5, marine insurers began pulling war-risk coverage for Gulf-bound vessels—a move one specialist called a “de facto close” as threat perceptions spiked. Reuters
Supply disruptions are no longer limited to crude. Qatar has stopped liquefied natural gas production, with QatarEnergy expected to trigger force majeure after drone strikes hit the Ras Laffan complex. In Saudi Arabia, the massive 550,000-barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery was taken offline as a precaution following a drone attack, according to a source. “A significant escalation,” is how Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, described the Ras Tanura strike. Reuters
On March 1, OPEC+’s eight members with extra voluntary cuts signed off on a 206,000 bpd production boost for April, the group announced. The adjustment isn’t set in stone—the increase could be halted or rolled back if market signals warrant it. The same eight countries plan to meet again on April 5 to settle output targets for May.
Banks, though, aren’t moving off the sidelines just yet. The next move depends squarely on whether Hormuz flows stay squeezed — and for how long — plus any risk of that squeeze turning into real, drawn-out supply hits. Citi’s call: Brent to stay in the $80–$90 range over the coming week, but with room to drop to $70 if things cool off. Goldman Sachs put the current “risk premium” for crude at $18 a barrel, tacked on top of prices as traders price in possible turmoil. JPMorgan flagged a sharp drop in strait exports — down to around 4 million bpd, far off the normal 16 million — and said any 3–4 week blockage could be enough to shove Brent past $100. Reuters
Wild swings have taken hold. Brent surged as much as 13%, touching $82.37 a barrel—levels not seen since January 2025—before pulling back. Kenny Zhu, analyst at Global X, flagged “heightened volatility” and the risk that oil and gas shipments could be rerouted. Reuters
The market faces renewed jitters after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reported that a fuel tanker was ablaze in the strait, the result of a double drone strike. According to a statement from the Guards, the ship in question is called “Athen Nova,” seemingly referring to the Honduras-flagged asphalt tanker Athe Nova, Reuters said. Reuters
The oil shock sent waves through the wider market, nudging investors into safe-haven territory as risk assets stumbled. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, described the move as “a knee-jerk reaction” to reduce exposure, but noted there wasn’t any real panic among investors. Reuters
A U.S. official in Washington said the Trump administration isn’t talking about tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve right now, despite concerns over rising crude prices. Analysts, though, say it might come back on the table if oil keeps heading higher. Reuters put the SPR’s holdings at 415.4 million barrels.
Brent’s main contract runs on ICE all the way to 23:00 London time, stretching liquidity late. March 5 looms next: that’s when some Gulf war-risk insurance cancellations kick in. Traders are watching closely for any shift—good or bad—in tanker flows through Hormuz before then.
