NEW YORK, March 13, 2026, 13:02 EDT
Shares of Occidental Petroleum swung higher early on Friday, hitting an intraday peak at $59.15 before slipping back. By 12:46 p.m. EDT, the stock had dropped roughly 1% to $57.83. Oil prices continued to hover above $100, keeping the U.S. producer on traders’ radar.
Occidental’s still juggling a hefty debt pile from its Anadarko and CrownRock acquisitions, all while aiming to keep production stable. Last month, the company put out guidance for 2026: capital spending is seen between $5.5 billion and $5.9 billion, with average daily output expected to land somewhere between 1.42 million and 1.48 million barrels of oil equivalent—a metric that lumps together oil and gas. Debt’s come down by $5.8 billion since mid-December.
Wall Street’s outlook is getting rosier as crude prices push higher. On Thursday, Piper Sandler bumped Occidental up to overweight from neutral and took the target to $66, up from $54. The firm pointed to expectations for tighter crude balances and the potential for enduring supply disruptions as key reasons for the move. Piper Sandler also noted Occidental should be able to maintain roughly the same production levels while spending $800 million less than previously forecast.
Wells Fargo bumped its rating on the stock to overweight from underweight, pushing the price target up to $69 from $47. As for the fourth quarter, the bank pointed to stronger capital efficiency — more or less the same output, but with less capital tied up — and said that creates extra space for dividend hikes and buybacks.
Oil prices took center stage. Brent was at $101.83 a barrel as of 10:55 a.m. CDT Friday, following a more than 9% jump for both global benchmarks the previous day—their strongest levels since August 2022. “The market is starting to get very concerned that this (war) is going to last longer,” SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said. Reuters
That surge in prices is far beyond what Occidental requires for expansion. Last month, Chief Executive Vicki Hollub made it clear: maintaining U.S. production works at $60 to $65 oil, but, as she put it, “We are going to need $70 oil to continue to grow.” Reuters
The action was mixed for energy stocks. Exxon climbed 1.2% by early afternoon, but Chevron slipped 0.7%. Energy managed to notch gains Thursday, one of the rare S&P 500 sectors in positive territory as worries over the Middle East and inflation weighed on the wider market.
Occidental hasn’t eased up on paring down its debt load. Back on March 5, it bumped the limit for selected cash debt tender offers to $1.2 billion, according to an SEC filing.
If oil prices retreat, the trade could sour fast. Goldman Sachs, on Friday, reiterated its Brent forecast, seeing prices slipping back into the low $70s later this year as long as supply disruptions remain short-lived. Interactive Brokers’ chief market analyst Steve Sosnick flagged a risk: pricier oil paired with sluggish economic growth only fuels the “stagflation narrative”—that mix of sticky inflation and stagnation he calls “not exactly a good combination” for equities. Reuters
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